Bottom Line Poll

Who will bounce back the best from a mediocre 2009 in 2010?
 

Red Sox Events

bleacher_bar

Date: Wed. 03/10/10

Time: 7:00pm - 10:00pm

Location: Bleacher Bar

10 pairs of Monster Tix
will be raffled off to support
the Spaulding Rehab Hospital.

$5 donations = 1 ticket
$10 in food/drinks = 1 ticket
The more you eat and drink,
the more chances you earn!

 

dinner

Date: April 5th, 2010

Where: House of Blues

Join the Red Sox at the
2010 Welcome Home Dinner
Presented by Covidien
on Monday, April 5.

All of the Red Sox players
will take the stage at the
House of Blues to star in a
hilarious TV game show spoof.

This unique fundraiser is one of
two attended by the entire team.

Proceeds benefit the
Red Sox Foundation's
charitable programs for
at-risk children.

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Kevin Youkilis' beard saves children from burning building
Written by Rob Munstis   
Sunday, 07 March 2010 08:30

youkilis_mustache

Okay... maybe that didn't happen, but Kevin Youkilis is helping kids with his facial hair.

Over on the Youk's Hits for Kids website, you can vote for your favorite version of Youk and he will sport the winning look on Opening Day against the Yankees.

You can chose from the his now-famous goatee, the Youk-Man Chu from last year's photo day, the Magnum P.I. mustcahe, or the clean cut look from his earlier years (boring!) and the donations go towards helping children in need.

“If I have to look like Magnum, P.I., to raise some money for kids, I’ll do it,” said Youkilis.

I love th 5-cent mustache ride joke as much as the mext guy, but the 'satche reminds me of Giambi and that doesn't work for me. I'm voting to bring back the Youk Man-Chu.

Click here for all the info.

 
Fun with Balls (In Play)
Written by Rob Munstis   
Thursday, 04 March 2010 16:24

The guys at YFSF turned me on to this cool Balls In Play (BIP) tool that enables you to stick a players hits from 2009 inside Fenway Park and see how differently they would have landed.

Example: Here are Mike Camerons BIPs while playing for the Brewers in Miller Park and what they look like had they been hit in Fenway Park:

bip_cameron

Cam' hit 14 ding dongs at Miller last year, but had he playing his home games at Fenway, he could have hit as many as 20 if all six of those doubles (light blue) had enough height under them. You can also see eight pop/line outs that would have been off the Monster, or close to it.

What about Adrian Beltre and his dismal Safeco Field splits you ask?


bip_beltre

Looks like Beltre has at least five doubles that might have been homers at Fenway Park, which would have doubled his total of four at Safeco last season. I also see at least three outs that are hugging the wall at Fenway and could have been homers, or at least doubles.

Let's flip the script and look at a pitcher. Here are John Lackey's dots from L.A.


bip_lackey

Lackey coughed up 11 dingers in Anaheim last year, but one of those would have been in the triangle at Fenway and another might have been off the short bullpen wall in right... maybe. Unfortunately, I also see four long balls that might have been homers or wall-ball doubles in Fenway. Lackey has averaged 20 homers allowed per year... and it looks like the smaller Fenway Park isn't going to help.

Okay, cool stuff right? Let's mix it up again and look at one of our guys in another ballpark. Here's how Dustin Pedroia would have done last year if he played 81 home games at Safeco Field instead of The Fens.


bip_pedroia

Poor Pedey... He's always had better numbers at home, but 8 of his 10 home field ding dongs from last year would stayed in the park if he played in Seattle. I'm sure Pedroia would tell us that this tool is a piece of junk and that he would tear up Safeco if he played there... but this does add some validity to Beltre's splits and comments.

Speaking of players that enjoyed hitting at Fenway last year, here's an idea on how Jason Bay will fair in the larger Citi Field.

bip_bay

Yikes.Bay actually hit 21 homers on the road and 15 at Fenway last year, but only two of them hit the white on the Citi Field map. It should be noted that some of the homers to left probably sailed onto Landsdowne St. and would have carried out of Citi Fied also... but the map also shows us that Bay had at least 12 doubles that appear to have bounced off the Monster and would have been outs in New York.

Lastly... here's a peek at how Adrian Gonzalez' 2009 BIPs would have played out in Fenway...

bip_gonzo

I see 12 outs that would have hit or cleared the walls of Fenway Park. I also see five doubles that might have been homers at the Fens. Assuming half of these had the height to be home runs, A-Gon could have logged 25 home field dingers instead of 16 and at least 48 dingers overall. Interestingly, the dots also show us how well the left-handed AS-Gon spreads the field. This tells me that he is a perfect candidate for the Red Sox because he will put plenty of dents in the Monster while also enjoying the short porch in right.

Bottom Line: These dots don't acount for the trajectory of the ball or the weather, but it's funn to get a rough idea on how different fields effect the game.

 
Stat geeks say Red Sox offense will be fine
Written by Rob Munstis   
Thursday, 04 March 2010 12:56

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors has been breaking down the offensive numbers for every American league team using Baseball Musings's lineup analysis tool and CHONE projections.

Assuming the projected starting lineups hold true and remain intact for 162 games, Tim's research says the Red Sox will finish 2010 with the second best offense in the AL with 5.371 runs per game. The Yankees will top the league with 5.826 RPG and the Rays and Twins will finish just behind the Sox with 5.273 and 5.250 RPG, respectively.

That's 870 runs - just two less than last season.

So... everybody can stop worrying. The stats have spoken.

ps. I found it interesting that the Angels are projected to fall from 2nd in the league last year (883 R) to 9th with 4.719 RPG or 764 total. Were Vladdy and Figgins that important to the offense? Guess we'll find out...

 
2010 Red Sox Fan Projections: Mike Cameron
Written by Rob Munstis   
Thursday, 04 March 2010 08:52
2010 Fan Projections: As we fight our way through February and March towards the start of a new baseball season, we'll be looking at each player on the Red Sox roster and predicting how they will perform in 2010. But we want you guys to get in on the action too! Use the form at the bottom of each post to submit your projections for each player. After the 2010 season, we'll announce who did the best and award some prizes to the winners!

Click a name to make other 2010 projections:

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard

Tim Wakefield

Clay Buchholz







Mike Cameron, CF

cameron

When we signed Mike Cameron and moved to Jacoby to left, I wasn't too excited. Personally, I think another year in center would have enabled Ellsbury to fine tune his routes and range. But the other option was to overpay for Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, so I understand why Theo did what he did.

But now we have an aging center fielder, with little to no experience in Fenway Park, who will hit .260 at best this year.

Predicting Cameron's 2010 season will be tricky. At 36, he's no spring chicken, but he did tally 544 at-bats with the Brewers last year. With Jeremy Hermida on the bench the Sox will likely load the lineup with lefties on occasion and give Cameron a rest, so I'm not sure he'll reach the 500 AB mark this season.

Where he hits in the lineup will also effect his overall production.Some think he best suited in the 9-hole, but others think having Scutaro in 9th and Cameron 8th would work better as the lineup turns over. But with 20+ HR potential, Cameron might actually do well higher in the order like he did last season with Milwaukee. Adrian Beltre is the other candidate for the 6th spot, and Tito could rotate the two righties all season, depending on which guy has the hotter bat at the time.

If Cameron spends enough time in the 6th spot, he should be able to drive in 70 runs with our best hitter ahead of him. But if he finds himself at the bottom of the order, his RBI totals will be dependent on how well J.D. Drew, Beltre and possibly Scutaro hit in front of him. That said, pitchers might be more aggressive against Cameron if they know Ellsbury and the top of the order are to follow... and that could play into Cameron's strengths as a good fastball hitter.

Cameron will strikeout 150 times this season, but he has managed to keep his OPS numbers near .800 thanks to a decent walk rate (11.9 BB% in 2009). For comparison, the more patient Johnny Damon walked 11.3% of the time last season and posted a .854 OPS. It's a little late to teach an old dog new tricks, but Cameron could learn a few things about working the count from guys like Youk, Pedroia and Drew, and that would make him a more productive player.

So what can we expect from Cam' this season? Bill James expects him to log 561 at-bats, but hit a Tek-like .237... I think he'll play less, but hit a little better.

Bottom Line Projection: 490 AB, 23 HR, 31 2B, 65 R, 70 RBI, .252 BA, .780 OPS, Special Category: 162 SO

Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Cameron this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...

 
Kelly looks sharp in 2010 debut, Sox win 15-0
Written by Rob Munstis   
Wednesday, 03 March 2010 16:53

The Red Sox beat the Northeastern Huskies 15-0 today in the first of two games against Boston-area college squads.

David Ortiz hit a 2-run homer in the 4th... it's early, but that's a good sign.

Catching prospect Luis Exposito had a huge day, going 2 for 3 with 4 RBI and 2 runs scored after taking over for Victor Martinez.

Rookies Ryan Khoury and Che-Hsuan Lin each knocked in a pair of runs and Gil Valzquez went 3 for 4 with 2 RBI and 2 runs scored at the bottom of the order.

There was no shortage of offense, but the story of the day was Casey Kelly. In his first outing as a full-time pitcher, Casey did not disapoint. Here's the full beeak down of his inning from WEEI's Full Count:

He retired the Huskies in order. After falling behind leadoff man Tucker Roeder, 2-0, he then came back with three straight strikes to punch him out swinging. He then got Tony DiCesare on a first-pitch groundout to second, then finished the inning by punching out Northeastern’s Frank Compagnone on four pitches, the last one a swing-and-miss fastball.

Kelly’s line was a perfect inning with two strikeouts, in which he threw 10 pitches (seven strikes).

the rest of the pitchers domintaed the Huskies as well. Click over for the Box Score.

NESN will have tonight's game, so be sure to check in as the rest of the Sox take on B.C.

 
Ding Dong the Winter's Dead
Written by Rob Munstis   
Wednesday, 03 March 2010 09:35

orsillo_remy_spring_funny

It may be snowing in your neck of Massachusetts right now, but the boys of summer are set to play their first game of the 2010 baseball season today.

The Red Sox have two games on the bill today, first against Northeastern at 12:05 and later tonight at 6:05 against BC. The day game won't be televised, but we'll be able to watch our first baseball game on NESN tonight.

Here's the lineup for the day game, courtesy of Peter Abrahm of Extra Bases:

Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Bill Hall 3B
Victor Martinez C
David Ortiz DH
Jed Lowrie SS
Lars Anderson 1B
Darnell McDonald RF
Che-Hsuan Lin CF
Gil Velazquez 2B

Pitching phenom Casey Kelly will get the start, but is expected to get just one inning of work.

I'll be rooting for strong performances from Big Papi and Jed Lowrie (I just wanna see the kid stay healthy and show us we he's got)... and I'm hoping to see good things from Anderson, who regressed in 2009, and Lin, who I think is going to develop into a nice player and is currently the 12th ranked prospect on SoxProspects.com.

What are you guys looking forward to today?

ps. I stole this photo from my biddies as Surviving Grady ... because it was too funny not to.

 

 

 
Adrian Gonzalez wants Teixeira money... Will the Red Sox say no twice?
Written by Rob Munstis   
Tuesday, 02 March 2010 17:01

From MLB Trade Rumors:

The agent for Adrian Gonzalez told Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune that he sees Mark Teixeira as a fair comparable for his client. John Boggs, who represents Gonzalez, told Padres GM Jed Hoyer the same thing and that basically ended their conversation.

Teixeira signed a $180MM deal with the Yankees last offseason as a 28-year-old. Gonzalez won't be a free agent until after the 2011 season if the Padres pick up his $5.6MM option, but his agent is thinking big already.

“You always shoot high and adjust to the marketplace,” Boggs said of Gonzalez, who will presumably be 29 by the time he hits the market.

Bottom Line: The Sox may not have ever had a real shot at signing Teixeira, but they might have the best shot at signing Gonzalez. Losing Tex to the Yankees hurt in more ways than one. They can't afford to lose A-Gon.
 
POLL: Rebound Guys
Written by Rob Munstis   
Tuesday, 02 March 2010 11:03

matsuzaka_ortiz

As I was catching up on my Red Sox news this morning, I came across a post at Surviving Grady referencing Big Papi's second half numbers from 2009. Then, I bounced over to RedSox.com and read about Dice-K's latest throwing session and how good he looks after the injury scare last week.

This got me thinking...

We've got quite a few candidates for a big "rebound" year this season. Ortiz is hoping to avoid the first-half slump he battled last season. Matsuzaka is hoping to bounce back from a lost season in 2009, in which he made just 12 starts. Adrian Beltre is hoping Fenway Park, will help him improve on the mediocre stats he posted in Seattle - especially last season. Even bench players, Bill Hall and Jeremy Hermida will be hoping that a change of scenery can get them back on track...

So, this is my latest poll question:

Who will improve the most on thier 2009 numbers in 2010?

Will Dice-K win 18 games again? Will Big Papi be the 30 HR/120 RBI threat he used to be? Can Beltre step up and give us the 20 ding dongs and the 80+ RBI Mike Lowell got us accustomed to?

Cast your vote on the poll in the sidebar.

 
2010 Red Sox Fan Projections: J.D. Drew
Written by Rob Munstis   
Monday, 01 March 2010 07:55
2010 Fan Projections: As we fight our way through February and March towards the start of a new baseball season, we'll be looking at each player on the Red Sox roster and predicting how they will perform in 2010. But we want you guys to get in on the action too! Use the form at the bottom of each post to submit your projections for each player. After the 2010 season, we'll announce who did the best and award some prizes to the winners!

Click a name to make other 2010 projections:

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard

Tim Wakefield

Clay Buchholz






J.D. Drew, RF

drew


J.D. Drew has been quite and enigma during his time here in Boston.  When Theo signed him for 5 years and $70 million, he was coming off of a very productive year in L.A. in which he tallied 100 RBI, 20 homers, 34 doubles and a .283 average.

Like many of us, I think Theo expected Drew to be a 20 HR, 100 RBI hitter for the Red Sox, but that hasn't happened. Drew hasn't been too far off on the homers (18/yr), but the average is a few ticks down (.276) and those 100 RBI in 2006 seem like an a fluke after three years in the 60s here in Boston.

Drew's mediocre RBI totals aren't entirely his own fault. Because Drew's strong OPS numbers, he's been asked to hit all over the lineup. In 2009, he logged 30+ at-bats in seven different spots in the lineup... but only had one at-bat as the cleanup hitter. He spent most of his time in the 6th spot (107 AB) but also tallied 173 combined ABs in the top 3 spots in the lineup. That will make it tough to total 100 RBIs in a season.

Drew's spot in the lineup in 2010 will remain a question mark. Assuming Youk hits cleanup and Ortiz hits 5th, Drew seems to fit well behind Ortiz in his customary 6th spot... but having back-to-back lefties in the heart of the lineup isn't ideal - especially late in games. If Adrian Beltre is hitting well, the Sox would likely slide him into the 6th spot and drop Drew to 7th, but that would put one of our best OBP guys at the bottom of the lineup. To avoid this, the Sox could put Drew in the 5th spot, but they aren;t likely to do that unless Ortiz is really struggling.

In my opinion, this is why Drew hasn't put up the production numbers we would like to see from him... and why Theo and Tito love this guy as much as they do. Like Youkilis and Wakefield, his versatility is a blessing and a curse, but he's managed to put up decent nuumbers despite being bounced around from game to game.

So what can we expect from Drew in 2010? Without a right-handed OF to swap out with the left-handed Drew, Tito may be forced to play J.D. more than he has in the past. Drew has only surpassed 500 at-bats once in his career (518 in 2004), but if he stays healthy, he could total 450+ ABs. That said, Drew wasn't overly productive when the offense was tops in the league... if the Sox' offense struggles like many suspect it will, Drew's numbers are also likely to drop.

Bottom Line Projection: 444 AB, 18 HR, 28 2B, 75 R, 60 RBI, .272 AVG, .875 OPS, 5 SB

Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Drew this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...

 
Red Sox Lineups for First ST games on 2010
Written by Rob Munstis   
Monday, 01 March 2010 11:24

red_sox_spring_training

Here are the lineups for the Wednesday games against Northeastern and Boston College are listed below, as reported by Boston.com:

vs. Northeastern, 1:05 p.m.

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, LF
2. Bill Hall, 3B
3. Victor Martinez, C
4. David Ortiz, DH
5. Jed Lowrie, SS
6. Lars Anderson, 1B
7. Darnell McDonald, RF
8. Che-Hsuan Lin, CF
9. Gil Velazquez, 2B

Starting pitcher: Casey Kelly

vs. Boston College, 6:05 p.m.

1. Marco Scutaro, SS
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
4. Adrian Beltre, 3B
5. Jason Varitek, C
6. Jeremy Hermida, LF
7. Tug Hulett, DH
8. Josh Reddick, RF
9. Ryan Kalish, CF

Starting pitcher: Boof Bonser

Bill Hall is the 2-hole versus NE and Beltre hitting cleanup versus BC are two interesting notes... that and seeing the 185 lb Tug Hulett as the DH. He did slug .473 in AAA last season...

Just happy to see baseball games being played again!

 
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