| 03 April 2009
We're less than one week away from opening day so it's time to take one last look at the teams we'll be seeing the most of over the next six months - the AL East.
The Rays Party wrote a preview for us back in February and Fire Brand of the AL is running their annual Know Thy Enemy previews this week, but we're going to keep things simple this week and give you Three Things you should know about the 2009 Rays.
Click here to get Three Things about the Yankees, Orioles and Blue Jays.
1. Great bullpen...mystery closer. The Rays might have the best bullpen in the majors. The Red Sox pen is stacked and the Yankees and Blue Jays have a solid group of RPs as well, but Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler were huge for the Rays in 2008 and JP Howell, Jason Hamel and Chad Bradford also pitched well. There have been some changes this offseason, but overall the pen remains stacked thanks to the additions of Joe Nelson and Jason Isringhausen. The only problem is the closer situation. Troy Percival closed out 28 games last year for the Rays, but he'll turn 40 in August and had back surgery this offseason. The Rays were able to work around Percival's ups and down in 2008 thanks to 13 saves from Wheeler, a few from Balfour and Howell and the emergence of David Price in September.
Troy says he'll be ready for Opening Day against the Red Sox, but I'm not sure I trust Percival to be effective for 162 games... it will be a long season for Joe Maddon and the Rays if they have to start closing by committee.
2. Amazingly, the Rays have room to improve. The Rays came out of the nowhere to win the AL East and battle the Phillies in the World Series... and they did it with mediocre results from a few key players.
BJ Upton hit .273 with just nine home runs in 2008. He's capable of hitting 20+ ding dongs, batting .300 and stealing 40+ bases... and he might even be better than that!
Carlos Pena hit .247 with 31 homers and 102 RBI. Not bad, but he's capable or hitting around .275 and has 40 HR power... if he can limit the strikeouts (166 in '08) he could be even more dangerous.
Carl Crawford used to be a lock for 40 SBs, a .300 average and at least 15 ding dongs. Last year he hit just .273, stole a measly 25 bases and had just eight homer runs. Crawford has game-changing ability... the sky is the limit for the Rays if he and Upton get hot.
The Rays also added DH Pat Burrell and OF Matt Joyce to the roster this offseason and Evan Longoria won't be bouncing back and forth between the minors and the pros this year. Many feel that the Rays' success was heavily based on their pitching in 2008, but the Rays will have both pitching and offense in 2009.
3. Can the starters repeat their 2008 success? James Shields is the ace. He was 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA in 2008 - both career bests. After Shields, it's tough to predict what you will get from Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine. Kazmir can be great, but he only made 27 starts last year do to an early injury and his velocity never really came back. He can still strikeout 200 batters in a season... but he's only thrown 200 innings once in four full season with the Rays. Garza had a breakout season last year and is still just 25 years old. His 11-9, 3.70, .245 BAA line could be a sign of things to come... but chances are he'll regress a bit in 2009. And Sonnanstine is a complete mystery... he went 13-9 in 2008 despite a 4.38 ERA, but in 2007 he went 6-10 with a 5.85 ERA... his .312 BABIP should tell you that he was lucky last season. Lastly there is Jeff Niemann and his 5.06 ERA. If he isn't traded, he'll be the No. 5 starter instead of David Price and he'll be expected to replace the 14 wins Edwin Jackson (now in DET) posted in 2008.
Incase you were wondering, Niemann posted a 6.32 ERA in 15.2 spring innings... David Price posted a 1.08 ERA in 8.1 innings... they both fanned 10 batters, but Price needed half as many innings to do so. Expect him to be called up as soon as possible.
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