Brace yourselves for a "transition year"

Don't expect Theo Epstein and the Red Sox to counter with a blockbuster deal of their own. I expect the opposite, actually. Theo Epstein has been preaching about long term goals and the bigger picture all offseason and when you combine that with John Henry's whining about the current economic system in baseball, I get the feeling that we're being warned.

On paper the Yankees are now better than they were in 2009, and Theo has already stated in the past that the Red Sox expect to lose the AL East to the Yankees every year. So why would the Sox trade the farm for Roy Halladay or Adrian Gonzalez or overpay for Matt Holliday, Jason Bay or John Lackey just to keep pace with Yankees?

The answer is: They won't.

I do think they will sign Jason Bay, but I don't think they will make a move until another team trumps the 4x60 deal Bay already turned down. If Bay doesn't give the a chance to counter, the Sox could be in trouble, but they've already stated that they won't over pay for Matt Holliday. That said, if Bay signs elsewhere for, say 4x17 ($68M), there's no way Holliday will get the $100M deal Boras wants and the Sox might be able to sign Holliday for a "reasonable" price like 5x18 ($90M) or 4x20 ($80M).

But once the left field situation if under control, I expect the Red Sox to turn their attention to the minor details like a right-handed outfielder, bullpen depth and a 1B/OF type. I don't expect them to trade the farm for Roy Halladay or Adrian Gonazalez and I don't see them paying John Lackey $60M, let alone $100M.

Here's why...

1. To get Gonzalez, the Sox will need to tray away the farm AND move Mike Lowell. The A-Gon will likely include Clay Buchholz and that will force the Sox to find a new #4, but they won't have any prospects left to trade. They could test their luck with Rich Harden, Erik Bedard or Ben Sheets, but they all have injury concerns and will cost between $5 and $10 million to sign... Buchholz is set to make under $1M this year.

As for Lowell, the Sox have already offered to pay half of Lowell's $12M salary if a team was interested in a trade... Lowell's trade value even at $6M is low - especially now that Placido Polanco the new 3B in Philly. The Sox might have a shot a trading Lowell in July if he has a solid first half... and if the Padres are 10+ games back in the NL West at that time, a deal for Gonzalez might be more realistic.

2. I believe that Blue Jays Alex Anthopoulos wants to trade Roy Halladay, but Halladay is the one in control of that situation. He's limited the options to the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and Angels. The Philles used many of their prospects last season and the Yankees just traded the farm for Granderson and despite recent rumblings that the Halos are pushing hard to get Halladay, the Red Sox have the best package to offer.

The key here is Buchholz. Unlike with A-Gon, the Sox would be losing Buchhy, but gaining an ace in Halladay, so the rotation stays intact. However, Halladay will only be under control for 2010. If the Sox waited, they might gain some leverage come July when the Jays are floundering and Hallday is screaming for a trade to a contender. Anthopoulos has opened a window for teams to discuss an extension, which would be appealing to the Sox, but how many years will Halladay (33 in May) want?

Signing Halladay to a multi-year deal now would give the Sox leverage in 2010 when they look to re-sign Josh Beckett AND stop the Yankees from buying him in free agency, but with Mike Lowell, David Ortiz and Jason Varitek coming off the books, Theo will have alot of decisions to make.

Bottom Line: While a trade for Halladay is more likely, I don't see a block-buster deal happening this winter. Theo's already warned us that this may be the last year for this group of players and with the Yankees stacked for the near future that means Red Sox Nation needs to prepare for a mediocre 2010 and hope for some fireworks in 2011.