Disecting the Mike Lowell trade rumors

Trading Mike Lowell opens the door for a number of scenarios, so let's take a quick look at the possibilities:

1. The most exciting scenario would be to send Lowell to Texas and make a trade from Adrian Gonzalez to play first base. Yesterday, this idea seemed very unlikely, but it's amazing what can happen in 24 hours. With a serious deal in the work for Lowell and the Angels and Phillies offering the Blue Jays MLB ready talent like Joe Saunder (LAA), Erick Aybar (LAA) and J.A. Happ (PHI) for Roy Halladay... the Sox can focus on a trade for Gonzalez. But as we explained yesterday, Jed Hoyer and the Padres will likely want Clay Buchholz in the deal and that means the Sox will have to find another starter after the trade.

2. Another scenario would be to trade Lowell and sign Adrian Beltre to play third base. Beltre is a great defensive player, but he was a 4-year bust in Seattle after hitting 48 homers for the Dodgers in 2004. Beltre is also going to be expensive, and with the Sox already willing to pay $9M for Lowell to play for another team, I just don't see this making much sense...

3. Therefore, the Red Sox may not sign anyone to replace Lowell. They could simply move Kevin Youkilis to third base fulltime and play Victor Martinez at first base with Jason Varitek and Max Ramirez sharing time behind the plate. With Theo talking about 2010 as a "bridge year" I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to make this scenario work. The biggest problem with this arrangement is the catching. Ramirez is still just 25, but after posting close to a .300 average through three years of low A minor league ball, Ramirez has been a disappointment as of late, hitting .234 in 76 AAA games last season while fighting numerous injuries since 2008. Combine that with Jason Varitek's .209 BA from 2009 and you have a serious problem at catcher.

4. One other idea is that the Red Sox will flip Ramirez in another trade. Both the Blue Jays and Padres could use a young catcher with power, so the Red Sox could simply be adding pieces to make a trade for Halladay or Gonzalez. They could also make a trade with the Tigers for Miguel Cabrera, but the Tigers have Gerald Liard and the young Alex Alvia behind the plate right now. Almost every team in the league would welcome a young catcher of Ramirez' pedigree, so Theo could be piecing a multi-team deal together that would surprise us all...

Bottom Line: I hate to see Mike Lowell go. I think he could have been a productive .280, 20 HR, 80 RBI guys for us at the bottom of the lineup, but moving him does get me excited about the idea of a blockbuster trade. By paying 2/3 of the his salary, the Sox don't free up a whole lot of cash, so I have to assume that there is more to this plan...

We will keep you posted as we wrap us the last day of the Winter meetings today.