| 17 December 2009
Ken Rosenthal reported that Padres GM Jed Hoyer was "asking for a ton" and Red Sox Nation was quick to guesstimate what that really meant. Most agree that the deal would start with Clay Buchholz, but while some think the Padres will ask for prospects like OF Ryan Westmoreland and P/SS Casey Kelly, others wondered if Mike Cameron's arrival would enable the Red Sox to include Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade.
Let's take a look at how that would play out by assuming the Sox get A-Gon for Buchholz, Ellsbury and at least one prospect not named Westmoreland, Kelly, Kalish or Inglesias.
Financially, the Red Sox would shave $1 to $2 million total off the 2010 books by moving Buchhy and Ellsbury and add $4.8 million with Gonzalez. Using Alex Speier's numbers from his updated CBT article... that would likely put the Sox over the $170M CBT number, meaning A-Gon would really cost the Sox $4.8M plus $2M in penalties. But A-Gon is worth the extra 2 mil' right?
Let's see.
Offense: Gonzalez would essentially replace the "big bat" that Jason Bay provided last year and that David Ortiz has been begging for since Manny left. He's averaged 37 homers, 106 RBI and a .279 BA over the past three season while playing for one of the worst offense teams in the majors. The obvious assumption is that he will be even better in the middle of the Boston lineup. And since Fenway Park is much smaller than Petco, especially in right field, that should also help the left-handed Gonzalez.
But there's more to earning the respect of Boston fans than just hitting homers... you have to be clutch.
Bay was the superior "clutch hitter" by far in 2009, but the career number show us two things: 1) 2009 was Bay's best year by far when looking at these specific categories. The only other time he came close was in 2005. 2) Being the biggest threat in a weak lineup can kill your production in key situations. Bay's clutch numbers while in Pittsburgh are the same or worse than A-Gon's San Diego numbers.
So what prompted Bay to explode in 2009? Was it because it was a contract year? I'm sure that helped. Did he see better pitches than he did in Pittsburgh? I'm sure he did. But maybe he just simply thrived on the big stage... the question is: Will A-Gon?
Defense: A-Gon plays first and Bay plays left, so it's hard to compare the tow straight up. But Having Gonzalez at first base means Kevin Youkilis will be at third base, reportedly his "natural position." Gonzalez posed his first positive UZR/150 rating in three years in 2009 with a 3.4. Much better than Mike Lowell's -14.4 rating at third last season. Also, if Jacoby was traded, the Sox will have Mike Cameron in center and Jeremy Hermida in left in 2010. Cameron's experience gives him the edge over Ellsbury on defense, but Hermida isn't much better than Bay with the leather. He posted an -11.3 UZR/150 overall with the Marlins last year and a -24.2 through 51 games in left. The Sopx don't have many good options for right-handed platoon partners for Hermida. Fred Lewis has a good glove, but he's a lefty and ric Hinske and Rick Ankiel are decent, but left-handed as well. The could bring the switch-hitting Coco Crisp back to help in center and left... his knowledge of Fenway would be helpful and he's probably the best fielder FA outfielder out there.
Regardless of the platoon scenario in the outfield, A-Gon, Youk and Cameron are a defensive upgrade over Lowell, Bay and Ellsbury.
Money: This might be the biggest plus for Adrian. Bay would have cost the Red Sox $60 million over four years and had they given him the 5th year, $75 million. That probably would have stopped the Sox from signing John Lackey and the domino effect there means Clay Buchholz remains untouchable, canceling the possibility of a trade for Gonzalez.
Bay also would have been collecting a hefty paycheck while his bat-speed and defense got worse at 34 and 35. With A-Gon, you get an elite hitter at the age of 28 years old and for a measly $5 million. He'll command a 6 year, $120 million extension in 2011, but the Sox would have him locked in through his prime years .
While a trade for A-Gon eliminates the need to go after Adrian Beltre, it would present some cash flow issues in the near future. The Sox will have David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek off the books in 2011, but if Buchholz was trade to San Diego, the Sox would definitely want to re-sign Josh Beckett... and he'll be looking for no less than what Lackey got (5 years, $82.5M). They also need to re-sign Victor Martinez to either catch or take over for Ortiz as the DH. And they will want to be in on the Joe Mauer sweepstakes if he chooses to test the free agent market in 2011.
If they trade for A-Gon and offer hims 120 million bucks, I don't see them completing all of the above.
Bottom Line:Trading for Adrian Gonzalez now won't hurt too much and would improve the offense. But the Sox better hope that OF prospects Ryan Westmoreland, Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish enjoy the same major league success that Ellsbury has so far once Mike Cameron and JD Drew hang 'em up.
They also better hope that Joe Mauer stays in Minnesota, because I don't see them signing two $120M checks in 2011 and that means he'll land in New York if he walks from the Twins.
Flip side, keeping Ellsbury and Buchholz gives them a potential future ace and a potential All-Star in center for many years to come... and it keeps money open for Mauer, Beckett and Martinez.
What do you guys think the Sox should do?
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