Lowell trade off, now what?

So what the do the Red Sox do now?

Ken Rosenthal predicts Mike Lowell will not play another game for the Red Sox, but thinks that releasing a fan favorite like Lowell would be a bad idea. Instead, he expects Lowell to get healthy and earn a trade during spring training.

A fair point, but the Red Sox have had a tough time moving Mike Lowell and were already taking quite a discount in the Max Ramirez deal. Paying $9M of his $12M might get a few teams interested come April... but only if he can prove the thumb and hip won't be a problem. If the Rangers were the only team interested now, who is going to be interested in March?

If the Sox do hold onto Lowell, they'll have to get creative about how they use him. Mike's defense was dreadful last season, so the Sox will probably try and keep Kotchman and Youkilis at the corners as much as possible. But this presents three problems: 1) The Sox will be paying $12 for a right-handed bat off the bench. 2) If Lowell is used as a pinch hitter in a tight game, Tito may be forced to put Lowell and his disappearing range at third. 3) As good as Youk is a bouncing between first to third, it can't be good for him or the team to do it every other game.

That said, the Sox did win 95 games and score 872 runs last year with Lowell and band of misfits at short. With Scutaro at short stop and five very solid starters in the rotation, the Sox could hide Lowell's defensive deficiencies in 2010. And he does still offer something offensively...

Even with the hip surgery, Lowell hit .290 with 17 homers and 75 RBI in 2009. He also hit .307 at Fenway and .301 against lefties... and this is where he could be most valuable. Putting aside the fact that David Ortiz will also make $12M in 2010 and has nowhere else to play but as the DH, Lowell could share time as the designated hitter. Over the past two season, southpaws have been eating up Big Papi. In 2008, Ortiz hits .221 and only 19 of his 89 RBI came against lefties. In 2009, he was pretty bad all around, but hit .212 with a .716 OPS against lefties. Big Papi's power splits are also very telling: He's hit 11 homers against lefties and 47 against righties over the past two seasons.

This is where Lowell could help the Sox. Lowell has posted a .309 BA and a .914 OPS against southpaws over the past two years. It would be a very expensive "DH Duo" but it could result in 50 HRs and 140 RBI from the position.

Bottom Line: Kotchman has spent the past two seasons bouncing from LA to Atlanta and eventually to Boston... and has struggled because of it. But he's 26 years old and is two years removed from a very solid season as a starter for the Halos. Offensively, he and Lowell are pretty equal, but Kotchman gives the Sox a much better defensive alignment and that appears to be the direction the Sox want to go in.

Lowell does offer depth at third, but unless Jed Lowrie's wrist remains a problem, the Sox just don't have a spot for Mike Lowell on this team.

Red Sox assistant GM Ben Cherington talked about Lowell's future on Surius radio over the weekend and if you read between the lines, he seemed to indicate the Sox can only hope Lowell will be healthy enough to earn a trade before Opening Day:

"All the reports indicate that he should be 100 percent in spring training, let him go out there and play and he's either an important part of our team moving forward, a guy who obviously provides a good bat at third base so we have flexibility with (Kevin Youkilis) who can move between third and first. Mike's an excellent hitter, an excellent hitter at Fenway Park, and so he'll be an important part of our team and certainly if there's interest down the road we can consider that."