| 31 December 2009
1. Mike Lowell is still on the roster. He successfully repaired his injured thumb yesterday and should be back in 6-8 weeks ready to begin Spring Training. Lowell says he’s not upset about almost getting traded to Texas and appears ready to play one more year in Boston. But if the Sox sign Beltre, Mike Lowell is out of a job. Kevin Youkilis will start at first, Beltre will start at third, Casey Kotchman will back up Youk, Lowrie will be the utility infielder and David Ortiz is the everyday DH. There’s been talk of Lowell spending time at first base, but with Kotchman on the roster and Lowell’s hip limiting his flexibility, I just don’t see that as a legitimate option. We recently discussed Lowell sharing time at DH because of Ortiz’ recent struggles against southpaws, but that would give the Sox a DH platoon costing $26 million – not very efficient.
Maybe keeping Mike Lowell at third for one more year would be easier…
2. The biggest argument for signing Beltre and moving on from Lowell is defense. Beltre averaged a 12.2 UZR/150 ranking over the past four years and that earned him an average WAR value of 3.4. Lowell’s hip injury killed his range and that resulted in a -14.4 UZR/150 last season, giving him a 4.2 UZR/150 average ranking over he past four years and a 2.9 average WAR value over that time frame.
Lowell’s defense improved in the second half of 2009, presumably due to his hip getting healthy and the presence of Alex Gonzalez at shortstop. Lowell will be 36 in February 2010, but it’s not a stretch to assume Lowell will do better than -14.4 with Marco Scutaro at short and his hip on the mend. That said, he’s not likely to flip his UZR/150 rank from -14 to a Beltre-like +14. In theory, Beltre will win the Sox a few games with his glove and with a focus on run prevention, I can see why the Sox like Beltre, but will his bat cost the Sox a few games at the same time?
3. Offensively, Lowell and Beltre are very comparable. Before getting injured in 2009, Beltre was a 20 HR, 90 RBI guy in the middle of a weak lineup, playing in a very unfriendly ballpark. Mike Lowell was also a 20/90 guy, but while attempting to keep Lowell healthy, the Red Sox have limited his playing time, making him a 17/75 player over the past two seasons. The big difference between the two is plate discipline. Beltre has averaged 104 strikeouts per 600 at-bats over the past four seasons, resulting in a .765 OPS and a .268 BA over that span. Lowell been much more selective, averaging just 76 K’s per 600 at-bats while posting an .825 OPS and hitting .293 since 2006.
If Lowell stayed in Boston, the Sox would likely continue to rest him often and keep him under 500 at-bats (120 games), while Beltre would likely log his usual 550 at-bats (145 games). That alone will enable Beltre to potentially out-slug Lowell, but he’ll also be more likely to strikeout in the 9th with the game on the line. Lowell is simply a much better hitter when it matters most, hitting .319 with RISP, .290 with RISP and 2 outs and .333 with the bases loaded since 2007. One could argue that playing for the weak-hitting Mariners hurts Beltre here, but the numbers aren’t even close: .249 with RISP, .220 with RISP and 2 outs and .372 with the bases loaded.
4. Lastly, Beltre is going to be costly, and this might be the most important factor here. Lowell is set to make $12.5 million in 2010. If the Red Sox trade him, they will likely be forced to pay $8-$10M of that salary. Beltre wants $10M per year and the Sox aren’t likely to convince him to take less that $8M per year, so if they sign him, they will actually be paying a minimum of $16 million for their third baseman in 2010.
Adding Beltre would also put them over the CBT luxury, which means Beltre will cost them even more than the above guesstimate.
We also need to remember that Beltre isn’t looking for a 1-year deal. Giving Beltre a 3-year, $30M deal would lock up 1B and 3B for the next three years, but the Sox need every penny they can find in 2011. They need to consider re-singing Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez. They’ll need to re-sign or replace David Ortiz at DH. And they need money to make a run at Joe Mauer or Carl Crawford.
Lastly, adding Beltre might make it tough to trade for Adrian Gonzalez. Beltre and Youk have the better gloves, so the Sox could sign A-Gon to be the new DH, but Gonzalez is one more guy the Sox will have to pay big money to in 2011 and the Sox already have Lackey (16M), Drew (14M), Youkilis (12M), Matsuzaka (10M) and Cameron (7.75M) on the books for next year with Scuatro, Pedroia, Lester and Papelbon all set to make more than $5 million as well.
Bottom Line: The Red Sox could sit tight and let Mike Lowell play his final year in Boston fir $12.5 million and Kotchman and Lowrie can step if he get’s hurt. Personally, I think he can be as productive as Beltre in 2010 and it would save the Sox anywhere from $5-$10 million this season. If the Sox make a trade for Adrian Gonzalez in July, they can shift Youk to third and be covered at the corners for the foreseeable future, and I like the idea of Youk and A-Gon better than Youk and Beltre, don’t you?
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