| 11 February 2009
Here's a look at the Toronto Blue Jays from Will Rain at The Southpaw.
My first thought, in previewing the 2009 Blue Jays, is to tell you to ignore the constant repetition of the word "rebuilding" that lazy writers toss about when discussing the team. The Toronto Blue Jays are not, in face, rebuilding. The Jays have not willingly surrendered even one of their highest paid players, as rebuilding teams do, nor even, as far as has been reported, discussed it. What the Jays are doing is accepting the reality of a set of circumstances which have converged to undermine their chances in 2009 to a degree. These circumstance include the loss of Shaun Marcum to Tommy John surgery, the death of team owner Ted Rogers, as well as the dramatic impact of the economic collapse. In reaction to these things, team executives made a deliberate choice early in the off-season to fill needs internally as much as possible rather than go out and chase free agents. This decision has drawn increased criticism as the market for hitters like Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu has collapsed, but so far upper management has stuck with the plan to develop from within. So what you can look for from the 2009 Jays is not a rebuilt team, but a transitioning team. One with good potential almost everywhere, but also loaded with the sort of uncertainty any transition entails.
In the field, the lineup which finished 2008 will be the one which likely opens 2009 with the exception of 2B Aaron Hill returning from the concussion that cost him most of 2008. The Jays have said that phenom Travis Snider will be the primary LF, with Adam Lind shifting to the role of primary DH. The Jays believe, however, that the team will be considerably better as an offensive unit in 2009. Scott Rolen gave Cito Gaston reason to believe he's fixed his swing and is ready to return to his old superstar form, Vernon Wells was excellent when on the field in 2008 and with health should contribute strongly. Gaston also cites Rios as a potential superstar, and the Jays believe that Snider/Lind will contribute more than the collection of veterans who appeared in their respective positions last year. The team also should continue to be among the finest defensive squads in the game.
On the pitching side of the ledger, the Jays league-best bullpen returns not only intact, but boosted by the return to health of Jeremy Accardo. In point of fact, the Jays have 10 or more relief pitchers worthy of a major league job. The rotation is, of course, the major source of the uncertainty surrounding the 2009 season. After Demi-god Roy Halladay and productive (albeit unheralded) Jesse Listch, things are dicey, but not necessarily hopeless. Hard-throwing Dustin McGowan is recovering from shoulder surgery in anticipation of a May or June return to the rotation. Much will depend on how effective he is upon his return. Another recovering pitcher, Casey Janssen, has been cleared to begin Spring Training like any other pitcher and while he has escaped the notice of many observers, he might be the best candidate in the AL to step out of the shadows into the limelight much like Jon Lester did last year in Boston. JP Riccardi has given strong indication that Janssen is a favorite to break camp in the rotation. The last spot likely goes to big lefty David Purcey. Most fans don't realize Purcey turned a major corner in 2008 after he sought treatment for ADD last off-season. Purcey is almost as good a candidate to have a break-out season as Janssen. If all these pitchers live up to the team's expectations, the Jays will be much closer to their competition than most are predicting. If not, they will be a team that has a much steeper hill to climb. I should also mention that in camp, there will be an open competition, including last year's feel-good story Scott Richmond, as well as some young hotshots and veteran re-treads for the assignment of filling McGowan's spot until he's ready. But who fills that role isn't going to make or break the Jays season.
We asked Will five questions about the 2009 Blue Jays. Here are his answers:
1. Travis Snider looks like a promising rookie... can you give us some details on him? Do you think he can win a starting job?
Snider looks more and more likes he's written in ink with each passing signing. Unless you see the Jays pull a Mosies Alou or a Ken Griffey out of their hat in the next couple of weeks, Snider has the job in LF. Snider is a pure baseball player, with intangibles which are described as "off the charts" but a shorter, stocky build that belies his talent. He's a solid average RF who should be fine in LF and has the power stroke to eventually hit 40 homers. He'll strike out a lot, but a lot of great hitters deliver a lot of value while striking out 140 times or more - see Adrian Gonzalez, maybe, or Prince Fielder, for the sort of hitter Snider can be. He might struggle some this year though, he is VERY young.
2. GM JP Ricciardi lost AJ Burnett to free agency and was told that he could not reallocate that money. The result has resulted in a stagnet offseason for the Jays. Is this frustrating as a fan? Will it hurt them in 2009?
Most Jays fans are hugely frustrated, often irrationally so. I personally find this frustration misplaced. Manny Ramirez is a transformational player and one I'd love to have brought in but other than that, I think that most of the players Jays' fans would have coveted fall into the category of impulse-buying for short term gratification. The kind of purchase that often produces more buyer's remorse than anything of value. Whether or not it hurts their chances in 2009 depends almost entirely on what they get out of McGowan, Janssen, and Purcey. If they don't live up to expectations, the Jays will suffer in 2009 and JP will probably not last out the season. If they do, the Jays are going to make a lot of their fans' comments over the last few months look very foolish.
3. The Jays have been dismantled by the injury bug the past few years... Which recently injured pitcher will make the biggest impact in 2009: Jeremy Acardo, Matt Clement or Dustin McGowan.
I don't think Clement can make it back to usefullness, Accardo should be fine but in such a crowded pen, his impact will be limited unless Ryan is traded at some point. That leaves McGowan out of the three mentioned. But again, don't overlook Casey Janssen.
4. Who will be the surprise of the 2009 season for the Blue Jays? This can be a rookie or just a player you think will play beyond expectations.
Janssen and/or Purcey. I also think that a lot of baseball fans have prematurely written off Scott Rolen. Look for a major comeback from him in 2009.
5. Predict the final standings for the AL East - We all want are team to go all the way, but try to be realistic.
Boston - the clear favorite in my mind
New York - good on paper but with a lot of potential for things to go sour, though who can say how many will
Tampa Bay - solid team, not remotely as good as they played last year. Wins in the upper 80's though.
Toronto - much closer to the Rays than most think, with a lot of luck, could win the wild card, but defiantly a dark horse.
Baltimore - some interesting high upside moves lately, but still a couple of years from being successful over a full season.
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