| 20 February 2009
People use the term "x-factor" all the time. Dictionary.com give this definition:
A hard-to-describe influence or quality; an important element with unknown consequences.
The Urban Dictionary simple defines an x-factor as "an unknown variable" (but also reminds us that it's the name of a lame reality tv show, X-Pac's finishing move and one of many short-lived X-men-related comics).
One could argue that there are a number of x-factors for the 2009 Red Sox: Will David Ortiz return to his 45 HR, 120, RBI, .300 BA form ... Will Mike Lowell successfully return from hip surgery ... Will Jason Varitek have a pulse?
But based on the definitions above, I like to think that Tim Wakefield and his knuckleball are the x-factor this season. Wake has won 10 or more games in six of his last seven seasons and started 30 or more games in five of the past six years. Age and injury have begun to catch up with Wakefield, but he's remained a reliable starter and, when the knuckleball is dancing, he's given valuable rest to the bullpen.
And that's where the x-factor comes in ... the "important element with unknown consequences." The knuckleball is hard to predict, therefore, Wakefield's success is hard to pedrict. A perfect example of this is Wake's stats versus Tampa Bay:
In 2008 Wakefield was 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in three starts. The Rays hit .279 as a team against him ... but from 2004-2006 Wake was 7-1 with a 3.03 ERA and a .202 BAA against the Rays.
The Rays were dramatically better in 2008 than they have been in the past, but they were carried by solid pitching, not by their 21st ranked team BA of .260. So what happened? Did they Rays finally figure him out? Or is Wake losing his touch?
It's tough to say ... he's the x-factor.
One other angle to look at is his connection to the bullpen. Wakefield averaged 6.03 innings per start last season and finished with a 10-11 record through 30 starts. He walked away with eight NDs last year and allowed an average of just 2 runs per outing in those starts ... he also average 6.78 innings per outing in those games.
Each game is different, but clearly the bullpen cost him a few wins in 2008. The 2009 bullpen might be the best we've ever had in Boston. If Wake can continue to average 6+ innings per start Masterson, Okajima, Ramirez and Delcarmen have the skills to thwart those late-inning rallies and Saito and Papelbon could prove to the most dominant game-ending combo in baseball this year. The result should be a few more W's for Wakefield and the Red Sox.
Bottom Line: The Red Sox pitching staff is deep. Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka have earned the spotlight, the additions of Penny and Smoltz have excited the Nation and the "Clay Buchholz Project" still has people talking ... but Tim Wakefield has quietly been the most consistent starter on this team. He's not going to post an ERA under 3.00 (probably not even under 4.00) but if he stays healthy, and the bullpen helps him out, Wake should win another 10-15 games this season. And in the insanely competitive AL East, the Red Sox will need every win they can get.
Side Note: Wakefield needs 28 wins to tie Roger Clemens and Cy Young for the franchise record (192) ... He's 42, so he'll have to work fast, but I'd like nothing more than to see Wake break the record and walk off into the sunset with a record that exemplifies his dedication to the Red Sox.
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