| 02 February 2009
The Boston Herald's Michael Silverman talked about Daisuke Matsuzaka pitching for Japan in the World Baseball Classic this spring, as well as the Red Sox plans for keeping him healthy for the 2009 season. The main concern seems to be that Matsuzaka will be asked to throw "mega bullpen sessions" while training and playing with Japan, but pitching coach John Farrell says Dice-K knows that the Sox want him to be careful:
"He's had two years with us now, he's lived with the challenges of adapting to our approach and he's more understanding of it," Farrell said. "For him to have spring training over there rather than in Fort Myers under our watch, are the mega-bullpen sessions more likely to take place than otherwise? I'm hopeful they're not. That's why we're taking these steps."
Matsuzaka averaged just under 190 innings per season during his eight years with the Seibu Lions (minus 2002, just 73 IP) and pitched 204 and innings with the Red Sox in 2007. But in 2008, Dice-K spent some time on the DL and only pitched 167 innings. Though he's only 28, Matsuzaka has thrown more innings than most starters his age due to a very successful young career... so the Red Sox are justifiably concerned about him spending his spring training in Japan, rather than under the watchful eye of Farrell and the Red Sox trainers.
But should they really be all that concerned? Will pitching in the WBC have a negative effect in Dice-K's 2009 season? It's tough to say, but we can look at some stats from 2006 and see how other starters faired after representing their countries in the 2006 WBC.
Carlos Zambrano has been an innings eating machine for the Cubs and pitching for his native Venezuela didn't slow him down in 2006. In fact, he posted a career best .208 BAA and fanned 210 batters that year. But a look at the next two years might show cause for concern... Since 2006, Zambrano's ERA has been hovering just under 4.00 and his strikeout numbers have fallen out of the 200's.
It would appear that the WBC did not hinder Zambrano in 2006, but the Red Sox are not only concerned about Matsuzaka's 2009 season... they want to ensure that he stays healthy and effective in the future as well. Despite turning 28 in June, Zamabrano's workload and aggressive style are already a concern for the Cubs. A less aggressive approach as of late may be the cause for the dip in his stats, but you have to wonder if that extra work in 2006 took it's toll...
Javier Vazquez is another 200+ IP workhorse that chose to pitch for his native country (Puerto Rico) in 2006. Vazquez might be even more of a machine than Zambrano, and like Carlos, he went on to post numbers comparable to his averages in 2006.
Unlike Zambrano, Vazquez actually got better in 2007 and 2008... posting an ERA under 4.00 for the first time since 2003 in '07 and climbing back into the 200 Ks club in '07 and '08. At 32 (33 in July) Javier is what the Red Sox hope Matsuzaka can be as he approaches his 30's and a another example of a starter that was not effected by his time in the WBC.
Johan Santana is another. Santana pitched for the U.S. in the 2006 WBC and went on to win the AL Cy Young Award, leading the AL in ERA, wins and strikeouts. He was 27 at the time and, despite a mediocre W/L record in 2007, he remains one of the best in the game.
You're probably feeling pretty good about the WBC right now, but there are a few other guys that show cause for concern. Let's start with Dontrelle Willis.
Willis won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2003 and won a World Series. He had a mediocre 2004, but bounced back with an amazing 2005 season, winning 22 games and battling Chris Carpenter for the NL Cy Young Award. But it's been all down hill since then...
In 2006, D-Train pitched for the U.S. in the WBC and went on to have a decent major league season, but his walks jumped from 55 in 2005 to 83 in 2006 and opponents hit .294 against him and took him deep 29 times that year. In 2008 he was traded to the Tigers where he promptly injured his knee and lost all control of his pitches. He agreed to go down to AAA and work on his control problems, but returned in September only to allow 12 runs in 12.1 innings in three starts that month.
Willis' quirky windup and mental toughness are probably more to blame for his injury and loss of control, but it is coincidental that he lost if so completely in 2006 after such a great 2005.
Jake Peavy never "lost it," but he did have a blip on his impressive stat sheet after pitching for the U.S. in the 2006 WBC. After posting an ERA under 3.00 in 2004 and 2005, Peavy's ERA jumped to 4.09. Playing for the lowly San Diego Padres might normally be an excuse for a mediocre record or ERA, but the Pads won the NL West that year and had a solid team.
Peavy struggled with mechanical adjustments due to various offseason injuries and missed a few games in June with shoulder issues that year... Was the WBC to blame? It's tough to say, but the fact that he had a career year in 2007 makes me curious...
Bottom Line: There is no "proof" that the WBC caused Dontrelle Willis to fall apart or that it caused the usually healthy and nasty Jake Peavy to struggle with multiple injuries in 2006, but there's no denying that it COULD be a problem for Matsuzaka in 2009.
Since coming to America, Matsuzaka has adjusted to a different sized baseball, a 5-man rotation and a completely different training regiment. Despite a nibbling the corners and walking a league high 94 batters last season, he seemed to be getting more comfortable. Now he'll have to work hard to balance his desire to help the Japanese defend their WBC title with his obligation to the Red Sox.
Dice-K is no stranger to pressure or the spotlight... and seeing a number of experienced players shake off the WBC and go on to have great seasons does ease my concern. But if you're still worried, consider this:
After the roller coaster that was the start to the Red Sox 2008 season, Matsuzaka went 8-0 with a 2.83 ERA in first 11 starts. He did spend some time on the DL in June, but another 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 154 K season would be fine with me...
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