| 04 February 2009
Earlier this week we discussed how pitching for Japan in the World Baseball Classic might affect Daisuke Matsuzaka's 2009 season with the Red Sox. Pitchers spend spring training easing their way towards the 100 pitch mark and the concern in that the WBC asks pitchers to throw too hard or too much too early. But we looked at a few starters that pitched in the 2006 WBC, and most of them posted their usual numbers, or in Johan Santana's case, went on to win the Cy Young Award.
So it looks like the WBC won't slow Dice-K down, but the Red Sox have four other important players set to player set to spend their spring in the WBC and not at camp with the rest of the team: Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay and David Ortiz.
Should we be concerned? Here's a look at a few guys that played in the 2006 WBC and how they faired the rest of that season:
Justin Morneau (USA)
Morneau was a solid young player in 2005 and chose to play for the U.S. in the 2006 WBC. He went on to win the AL MVP Award that year after leading the Twins to an AL Central title with a .321 BA, 34 HR and 130 RBI. Clearly, playing in the WBC didn't hurt Morneau, but his average did fall to .271 in 2007, despite 31 HRs and 111 RBI...
Placido Polanco (Dominican Republic)
Polanco is a career .306 hitter that like to spray the singles but has 20+ double power. He played 43 games for the Phillies and 83 games with the Tigers in 2005 and posted above average total numbers thanks to a strong second half in Detroit: .338 BA, 20 2B, 6 HR, 58 runs. He only played 110 games in 2006, but it a look back reminds us that he separated his shoulder in August and missed 34 games... so it wasn't the WBC. Polanco went on to have a career year in 2007 hitting .341 with 36 doubles, 67 RBI and 105 runs and a solid 2008 as well.
Jason Bay (Canada)
Bay won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2004 after hitting .282 with 26 HRs and 82 RBI in 120 games for the Pirates. He was even better in 2005, hitting .306 with 32 ding dongs, 101 RBI and 110 runs scored. He represented Canada in the 2006 WBC and went on to have another great season with the Pirates (.286, 35, 109)... but in 2007 his average plummeted to .247 and he walked just 59 times after earning 102 free passes the year before. Did the extra long 2006 hurt him in 1007, or was he simply the victim of being the only threat in the Pittsburgh lineup? A solid 2008 (.287, 27, 101) would suggest the latter...
Carlos Guillen hit .320 with 19 HRs, 41 doubles, 85 RBI and 100 runs scored in 2006 after playing for Venezuela in the WBC.
Matt Holliday hit .326 with 34 ding dongs, 45 doubles, 114 RBI and 119 runs scored after representing in the U.S. in 2006.
And playing for the DR team in 2006 didn't slow down David Ortiz, but his BA and home run numbers dipped a little in 2007...
2004 - .301 BA, 41 HR, 47 2B, 139 RBI
2005 - .300 BA, 47 HR, 40 2B, 148 RBI
2006 - .287 BA, 54 HR, 29 2B, 137 RBI
2007 - .332 BA, 32 HR, 52 2B, 117 RBI
Bottom Line: There really isn't any indication that the World Baseball Classic will negatively affect Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay or Ortiz. But, Youk, Dustin and Jason are all younger than Big Papi and they are not coming off an injury plagued 2008 season...
Ortiz says the wrist feels good so we can only hope that the WBC will help him get his stroke back. I just hope he doesn't burn out in September and October when we need the Papi Magic the most.
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