Matsuzaka didn't fool anyone

Written by Rob Munstis | 13 January 2010

Daisuke Matsuzka recently admitted to hiding a leg injury during the 2009 season. He claimed that it forced him to pitch more with his upper body, and that while he could maintain his velocity, he lost some of his command.

Troy from Fire Brand of the AL attempted to prove that theory, but the PitchFX data didn't show much of a change in his control. Instead, it appears that Matsuzaka was simply very lucky in 2008 and not so much in 2009.

His ability to pitch so well was based on three stats that pitchers have not been shown to have control over; BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB.  His BABIP was down at .267 and should be near .300, LOB% was at 80.6% and should be near 76% and HR/FB was at 6.1% and should be near 10-11%.  It should be noted that there are some reasons these could be different, BABIP has been surppressed by some groundball pitchers, strikeout pitchers can support higher LOB% and pitching in pitchers parks can lower HR/FB.

You can read Troy's full article to get the full picture, but I took a peak at some of the numbers on Fangraphs and one figure jumped out at me: O-Contact %.

Matsuzaka like to nibble at the strike zone. He managed to do so effectively in 2008, but it appears that opposing batters figured Dice-K out and adjusted in 2009. Batters increased their contact outside of the zone by 13% in 2009, which tells me they knew Matsuzka was going to nibble at the corners and they learned to reach in or out to hit those pitches.

With a mediocre defense behind him in the first half of 2009, the increased contact rate resulted in 1.37 hits per inning, compared to 0.76 H/IP in 2008 when he posted a 2.90 ERA and won 18 games. Matsuzaka also his BABIP increase from .267 in 2008 to .385 in 2009...

Bottom Line: With an improved defense and a more aggressive approach in 2010, I think Matsuzaka could be an effective pitcher again. But Dice-K has proven that he can be very stubborn and proud... if he refused to make adjustments, he will continue to frustrate us with his inability to get through six full innings and kill the bullpen in the process.