| 20 January 2009
Jonathan Papelbon doesn't seem to have much interest in signing a long term deal with the Red Sox right now. He seems hell bent on testing the free agent waters in two years, so the question is: What will the Red Sox offer him for 2009?
Here's a look at what other closers (or possible closers) are signing for this offseason:
Bobby Jenks, CWS - 1 year, $5.6M - first year of arbitration
Chad Qualls, ARZ - 1 year, $2.5M - Will have T. Pena and J. Rauch in wings, FA in 2010
Jose Valverde, HOU - 1 year, $8M - lost arb. and settled for 4.7M in 2007, FA in 2010
Houston Street, COL - 1 year, $4.5M - Will battle M. Corpas for closer role, FA in 2010
Kevin Gregg, CHC - 1 year, $4.2M - Will battle C. Marmol for closer role, acquired via trade
Kerry Wood, CLE - 2 years, $20.5M, signed as a FA
Brian Fuentes, LAA - 2 years, $17.5M, signed as a FA
Francisco Rodriguez, NYM - 3 years, $37M, signed as a FA
Trevor Hoffamn, MIL - 1 year, $6M - Saved 30 games at age 40 in 2007, signed as a FA
Sean McAdam put it best when he compared Bobby Jenks to Papelbon:
A more comparable reliever, in terms of service time and accomplishment, would be Bobby Jenks of the Chicago White Sox. Jenks agreed yesterday to a one-year, $5.6 million contract, more than 10 times his $550,000 salary last season. The White Sox closer earned $225,000 less than Papelbon last season, and while each has won a World Series and been selected as an All-Star, Papelbon has been more dominant.
The White Sox aren't poor, but they try to stay under $100M as a team. The Red Sox don't have this problem and Papelbon knows this...
Jose Valverde's $8M deal is also worth looking at. He lost and settled for 4.7M in 2007, and took what seem feel was a lowball offer this offseason, after leading the NL in saves the past two years. Given the current economic market and the Red Sox public concerns about it, Papelbon could be on a similar path to Valverde, as opposed to K-Rod.
K-Rod lost in arbitration last season and was given $10M by the Angels. He then signed a 3/37 deal as a free agent after a monster 2008 season. But as McAdam reminds us, K-Rod had 5 years in the league when he earned $10M, this will be Paps 4th.
Bottom Line: Papelbon made $775K in 2008. Most of us are guessing that he'll earn around $5-7M this season. The key will be Papelbon's performance in 2009. If he remains the best closer in the AL, he'll likely command $10M next offseason. That's where the Red Sox will need to push for a long term deal or prepare for a bidding war in 2012...
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