| 22 January 2009
Most baseball fans will agree that pitching wins championships. I'll take it one step further and say that an effective bullpen wins championships. And an ineffective bullpen can lose them... just as a Mets fan.
With Jonathan Papelbon agreeing to a 1-year, 6.25M deal earlier this week the Red Sox boast one of, if not the best, bullpen in baseball. Papelbon and his band of pirates are good, but let's take a look at some other teams to see if they really are the best.
Boston Red Sox
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Set up: Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson, Takashi Saito
Middle: Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez
Alternates: Wes Littleton, Daniel Bard, Devern Hansack
Papelbon is the elite closer in the AL. His ERA has climbed from .92 to 1.85 to 2.34 in three years, but he had a career best 41 saves in 2008. Of course, that many saves came with a price: a career high 79.2 total innings. That said, he remains untouchable in the playoffs: 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA. Okajima had a rough June, posting a 9.64 ERA, but he finished with shockingly similar stats to his impressive 2007 season. Justin Masterson may end up back in the rotation, so the 8th inning could belong to a variety of players. Okajima could still play a part her, but Saito late game experience could make him the best option... if he can get healthy. Saito saved 39 games in 2007, and despite an injury shortened 2008, he's held batters to a .182 BAA since 2006. Delcarmen has another up-and-down season last year, but his second half stats were promising: 34.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, .161 BAA, 33/13 K/BB. Ramirez had a career year in KC with a 2.34 ERA and 70 Ks and Bard's 100 MHP fastball could be a factor this season as well.
Bottom Line: Anything can happen over 162 games, but if this group isn't the best in baseball, they're certainly the deepest. And Ramirez is the only guys projected to be on the 25-man roster that doesn't have post season experience...
Tampa Bay Rays
Closer: Troy Percival
Set up: Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, JP Howell
Middle: Chad Bradford, Jason Hammel, Joe Nelson
Alternates: Lance Cormier, Mitch Talbot, Juan Salas
Percival is recovering from back surgery and will turn 40 in August. Wheeler filled in nicely for Percival when injuries slowed him down in the second half of 2008 and the Joe Maddon also has Balfour, Howell and the newly acquired Nelson to close out games if need be. Howell (92 K, 2.22 ERA) and Balfour (82, 1.54 ERA) are the glue that holds this pen together, but having effective setup men is irrelevant if you don't have an effective closer. If Percival or Wheeler (31) can't close out games, everybody will slide up and the mediocre middle relief pitchers will be exposed.
Bottom Line: The Rays have one of the best farm systems in the league, and David Price proved how important it is to have quality prospects you can call in a pinch. If everyone stays healthy and effective, this pen is as deep and as talented as the Boston's - the key difference is an elite closer (Paps) versus an aging closer (Percival).
Cleveland Indians
Closer: Kerry Wood
Set up: Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis
Middle: Masa Kobayashi, Joe Smith, John Melaon
Alternates: Rich Rundles, Edward Mujica
Joe Borowski was a living heart attack in 2007, posting a 5.07 ERA while recording a staggering 45 saves. He could not duplicate that balancing act in 2008 and the Tribe struggled to find a new closer. Betancourt has the stuff to close but struggled in the role, as did Perez. Jensen Lewis emerged as the best option, saving 13 games (all after the break) and posting 2.94 ERA while doing so. That enabled "The Rafaels" to return to the set roles they were accustomed to, but with the addition of Kerry Wood this off season, the Indians now have three effective 8th inning guys. Wood completed the conversion from starter to closer in 2008 saving 34 games for the Cubs and with all of his experience coming in the competitive NL Central, Wood should remain effective in the equally competitive (and more offense heavy) AL Central.
Bottom Line: Like the Rays, the Tribe will be tough to beat if they have a lead in the 8th, thanks to four very effective relievers. The key will be keeping Wood healthy and avoiding early exits from their starters, because the middle relievers are not nearly as scary as the The Rafaels + Lewis.
Other Contenders
Philadelphia Phillies - You don't win the World Series without a solid bullpen. Brad Lidge emerged as one of the leagues best closers in 2008, saving 41 games with a ridiculous 1.95 ERA. They will miss JC Romero while he serves his suspension. Romero, Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin were all 70-game workhorses for the Phils in 2008. They also added Chan Ho Park and have a number of young arms that could help throughout the year.
Toronto Blue Jays - BJ Ryan returned from injury and saved 32 games in 2008. Jeremy Accardo, who saved 30 games in Ryan's absence in 2007, should be back should surgery in '09 and could be the set up man. Scott Downs, Brandon League, Jesse Carlson and Jason Fraser are all solid relievers.
Chicago White Sox - Bobby Jenks has quietly saved 30+ games in the first three years of his career. He's supported by Octavio Dotel, Matt Thorton and Scott Linebrink.
Atlanta Braves - Mike Gonzalez is set to close for the Braves in 2009 with ex-closer and injury prone Rafael Soriano looking to bounce back from an elbow injury. Will Ohman, Buddy Carlyle, Jeff Bennett and Blanie Boyer will all be back as well after solid 2008 seasons.
There are a few other teams with some quality bullpens like the Diamondbacks (Qualls, Pena, Rauch), the Twins (Nathan, Reyes, Guerrier, Breslow), the Mets (Francisco, Putz and Wagner still on the roster), the Angels (Fuentes & Shields) and even the Yankees (Rivera, Ramirez, Marte).
I may have even missed a few others... so let me hear it. Who do you think has the best bullpen in basebal? And who do you think I missed with my best of the best list?
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