| 10 July 2009
The Red Sox returned from a 9-game road trip with 6 wins and a healthy lead ove rthe Yankees in the AL East. Ten games at the Fens seemed like the perfect opportunity to hit the All Satr break on cloud nine, but things haven't panned out that way.
We lost two of three to Seattle and managed two victories over the A's, despite the offense going into hibernation. Still we had a chance to stay atop the East with a 4-game set against the Royals, but the bullpen blew the first of those games last night. To be fair... if Brad Penny could find a way to NOT throw 100 pitches through five measily innings, maybe we wouldn't be wondering why the best bullpen in baseball has suddenly become a weakness... but I digress.
Instead, let's focus on the positive. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett will each make a start this weekend and John Smoltz surely knows that RSN is starting to wonder why he is in Boston and not Clay Buchholz.
So, in short, I expect three wins the weekend. Not too much to ask, right?
Not when you look at the stats. Lester is 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA in his last seven starts, striking out 61 in 46.1 innings over that span. Oh... and the last time he faced the Royals, at Fenway no less, he threw a no-hitter.
Josh Beckett has been equally dominant, posting a 2.38 ERA and a 5-1 record over his last seven starts. He's also been perfect at home, winning five of eight starts at the Fens this season.
John Smoltz is the wild card, but it's for that very reason that I expect him to win this Saturday. Smoltz will be looking to rove he deserves to keep his roster spot beyond the All Star break and he'll get to take out his frustrations on one of the league's weakest offenses: 337 runs (28th), .253 (25th), .312 OBP (T-30th). A focused John Smoltz is a dangerous thing, but he's yet to stay locked in for a full 5 or 6 innings this season. I expect that to change this weekend.
The Royals will be countering with Brian Bannister, Gil Meche and lefty Bruce Chen. Bannister has been solid, but a lack of offense has left him with a 6-6 record... he's also 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA against the Sox. Meche has faired better against Boston (5-2, 3.62), but he is KC's Brad Penny, averaging 5.78 innings per start. The Sox are very patient (349 BB, 3rd)and they should be able to get to Meche early.
And then there's Chen. He won 13 games with Baltimore in 2005, but he spent the rest of his career begging for time in ten different organizations... including Boston. He gets to share the mound with Beckett on Sunday, so at least we can feel good about our chances in the final game of the first half.
Bottom Line: The pitching match-ups are stacked in our favor, but the offense will need something from people other than Pedroia and Ortiz. I'm look at Youk and Bay...
Get 'er done boys.
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