| 02 July 2009
The Red Sox might be the deepest team in baseball, even with Matsuzaka on the DL and Jed Lowrie still rehabbing in the minors. The clearly have to chips to make a big move (or a small one) before July 31st... but do they NEED to?
Jason Bay is one of the AL's most productive hitters, despite a .268 BA at present. Jacoby Ellsbury has proven that he can handle the everyday role in center. And JD Drew and Rocco Baldelli have combined to hit .271 with 14 homers, 48 RBI and 55 runs, while offering a nice lefty/righty option for Tito.
Youkilis and Pedroia make up one of the best right sides of the infield in baseball, but Youk may find himself across the diamond for much of the second half. That is where one potential problem lies... at third base. Mike Lowell could be ready to contribute after the All-Star break, but if he's not going to be the .285 BA, 20 HR, 85 RBI guy he was on pace to become, the Sox will have to find someone who can. Problem is... there just aren't alot of options at 1B or 3B that are better than simply moving Youkilis to third and playing Kotsay and/or Bailey at first. We took a look at some options yesterday that included Nick Johnson, Garrett Atkins and the unlikely option of trading for Victor Martinez.
We'll talk more about the 1B/3B options in a sec, but let's take a look at the rest of the squad first...
Nick Green has become a reliable option at short both at the plate and on the field. It took Greenie a while to adjust to life at short, but he's making fewer and fewer errors with every start and has even had some web gems worthy plays along the way. He's in a bit of a funk at the plate right now, resulting in an alarming home/road split of .310 and .226, but that's what we have Julio Lugo for, right? Julio has seen his playing time all but erased over the past month, but Theo and Co. have not found a viable suitor for his expensive contract, so he'll likely share time with Green and Lowrie for the rest of the season. Carrying three short stops isn;t wise in my opinion, but Lowrie keeps getting plunked in the minors and it has caused some set backs... if he can't get it together, I think we could see a Coco Crisp-esque second half from Lugo this year.
Remember, Coco was as frustrated as Lugo is now in 2008 and when he got the chance to play, he hit .315 in the second half and .375 in September... we should also take comfort in knowing that Coco's second half surge was probably a major factor in the trade that landed us Ramon Ramriez (5-2, 1.82 ERA in '09)... what would Lugo bring us if he "pulled a Coco" this year I wonder...?
Jason Varitek has been better in 2009 than he was in 2008, but he's still hitting .234 right now, despite the 11 ding dongs. The Sox still need to think about a long term solution here, but I think the combo of Tek and Kottaras should work fine through 2009. I still think the Sox will make a move for a catcher, either in July or during the offseason... and I still believe that Joe Mauer can be acquired.
Lastly, a quick look at the starters. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have put their April struggles behind them and become the 1-2 punch we expected them to be this year. Matsuzaka is a mess, but I still think he can contribute in September... Tim Wakefield has already won 10 games and should be an All-Star. And Brad Penny has been a hair better than mediocre, but with six wins already in the books, he's the bargain the Sox hoped he would be. John Smoltz is the wild card here... I think he can win games, but the first game jitters and some bad weather have put a cramp in his style sense his retunr to the majors. If Clay Buchholz doesn't get traded in July, he'll be ready to step in if Smoltz (or anyone else) struggles down the stretch and we also have Michael Bowden waiting in the wings as well.
In short, the Sox positioned themselves to make a run at another World Series in 2009 with Penny and Smoltz... but they're also set for the long term with Buchhy and Bowden in the minors... I see no reason to jeopardize the future for a "bit part" in 2009.
So... do you still think the Sox NEED to make a move this month?
If you do, my guess is you want to see them trade for a productive bat to help at 3B, 1B or DH. With David Ortiz posting a .320, 7 HR, 18 RBI line in June, I'm not as desperate for another big bat as I was 30 days ago... but I won't deny that adding one now wouldn't hurt.
Here's one scenario: Jed Lowrie returns and Lugo remains, resulting in Daniel Bard heading back to the minors. Then the Sox trade some prospects for Nick Johnson, forcing them to send Jeff Bailey back to Pawtucket as well.
My question to you all is this: Is Nick Johnson any better than Mark Kotsay and/or Jeff Bailey as the back up 1B? Is a trade for a Johnson-like player worth losing prized prospects when Kotsay and Bailey are capable of hitting around .280 and providing adequate defense at first?
I say no... but there are a million possible trade scenarios out there. So I ask you Bottom Liners: What move or non-move would you do if you were Theo Epstein?
Hit the comments section with your thoughts.
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