| 07 July 2009
John Smoltz has had a bumpy return to the majors. The jitters may have gotten to him in his first game back, causing his to cough up four runs in the first, 5 overall, against the Nationals. His second start was interrupted by bad weather, forcing him out of the game after four innings of work and just 52 pitches. And things weren't any better from him in his last start, his first at Fenway Park, in which he allowed 10 hits and 5 runs while facing the AL's worst offense.
So how long will the Red Sox wait before they decide that Smoltz just going to be effective as a starter?
Smoltz says he's happy with his progress, even if he's not happy with the results:
"What I hate more than anything is two-out runs," Smoltz said after the 5-0 loss last night. "But I felt in control. I threw the ball really well. I didn't have much to show for it tonight, but as mad as I get, I have to make sure to realize I'm making a lot of progress even though the results don't look like that."
Smoltz did throw 99 pitches through six innings and probably could have pitched seven if he was at full strength... a good sign, especially when you look at Brad Penny's 5.51 IP/GS ratio. If Smotz can get his pin-point accuracy back, he could be 7-inning starter, but if he continues to average 5 IP per start, he and Penny could do some serious damage to our bullpen over the next two months.
That's where Clay Buchholz comes in.
Buchholz was recently named to the AAA All Star team and has been absolutely dominant for Pawtucket, posting a 6-1 record, a 2.05 ERA and an 82/25 K to BB ratio through 87.2 innings. Not too long ago, Buchholz expressed his frustration with being trapped in Pawtucket, but he's come to appreciate thie opportunity to mature and hone his skills:
"I think I've matured from a pitching standpoint of the game," Buchholz said. "Last year those struggles helped me to do that. I wish I hadn't gone through the struggles, but at least I've learned from it and that's definitely good. It will all be figured out the next time I go up there."
Buchholz is primed and ready for a call up, but he'll have to wait for a spot to open up on the major league roster. One option would be to trade Brad Penny, but with Matsuzaka on the DL and Smoltz still shaking off the rust, the deal would have to be very special. The only other way Buchhy is going to get the bigs is if Smoltz us forced to the DL due to injury or ineffectiveness.
But with the Yankees and Rays playing well, the Red Sox can't afford to let Smoltz stumble through another 6 or 8 starts. Smoltz will get one more start before the break and at least two more before August. He'll likely face the Royals, Rangers and Athletics, giving him two games againt the AL's worst offenses (OAK - .242 BA, 341 R / KC - .252, 323 R) and a chance to prove his worth against a powerful Texas offense (121 HR, 2nd in MLB)... while in Texas.
Bottom Line: Smoltz needs to prove himself in these next four starts. That's my leash. Buchhy could get his chance if a trade is made before July 31st, but I don't see it happening. If Smoltz can't get it togther by then, it will be time to make a change.
What do you guys think? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below...
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