| 17 June 2009
The Red Sox have chosen to work with a make-shift, six-man rotation over the next few weeks while they wait to see how effective John Smoltz will be at the major league level and if Daisuke Matsuzaka can get his act together.
Most likely, that means the Red Sox have yet to receive an offer worthy of letting Brad Penny go, despite having Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden in AAA and Justin Masterson in the bullpen.
With Penny and Smoltz coming off of injury, Tim Wakefield in his 40's and Matsuzaka pitching in the WBC, the Sox expected to use the pitching depth they stockpiled in the offseason, but other than a brief stint on the DL, the starters have been healthy and productive so far this year.
So the Sox will mix things up over the bext week or two and that means Penny will get a few more starts to increase (or decrease) his trade value. That stats tonight against the Marlins. Because Penny spent his first five season as a Florida Marlin, he has limited experience facing them and he has not faired well in the three starts he does have on the books: 1-1, 5.00 ERA, .286 BAA.
That said, Penny is coming off of his best start of the season in which he blanked the Yankees through six innings while fanning five and walking one one batter.
He's really starting to click right now, posting a 3.86 ERA in two June starts, but the Sox would be smart to remember that Brad has a tendency to fade in the second half:
From Yahoo! - In Penny's pre-All-Star game starts since then, he is 30-17 in 407 2/3 innings with a 3.51 ERA. That helped him get selected to two All-Star game appearances as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers--and ultimately helped him hang on for a pair of 16-win seasons.
Penny's post-All-Star break numbers aren't quite so encouraging: a 15-14 record in 259 1/3 innings with a 5.00 ERA and a more than 30-point jump in opponents' batting average.
Another solid start or two would push Penny's value to the max, but if he can find a way to stay healthy and successful through the second half, the Sox might chose to hold their cards and get creative with the rotation... and I honestly wouldn't blame them.
The Marlins are countering with lefty Andrew Miller. After a rough April (6.94 ERA) Miller has quietly settled down, posting a 3.00 ERA in May and a 3.86 ERA in June and is coming off one of his best starts of the year in which he helf the Cardinals to three runs sand struck out eight. In his lone starts against Boston, he faired well, holding the Sox to one run through seven innings and earning the victory, but that was in Detroit in 2007.
Now he'll have to beat a Sox team that has won 7 of their last 10 and is 22-8 at Fenway Park...
Good luck kid.
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