| 12 March 2009
Jacoby Ellsbury was one of the primere base stealers in baseball last season. He stole 50 bases in the regular season and three more in the playoffs.
But Jacoby admitted that he underestimated how much all that sliding and diving would affect his body during the grind of a 162+ game season. That's why he spent the offseason adding a few pounds of muscle.
"I think the biggest thing I learned is that stealing bases is going to take a toll on your body. There will be times you don't even attempt it. You're going the first couple of steps, you see a pitchout, you're coming back. You're stealing, the guy fouls a pitch off. There are a lot of things. You have to have your body prepared to steal. That's why some guys don't do it - because it takes a big toll.
"I went into the offseason to prepare my body to endure stealing bases and diving for balls. That's the biggest thing I noticed: You will take a pounding on your body from constantly sliding. The first few times, you don't feel it, but over the course of a season it has a cumulative effect."
His workouts were designed to increase flexibility, strength and range of motion.
"The biggest thing for me is to be as strong as I can and light as possible," he said. "That's where you get your speed - to be as light as possible and as strong as possible. Weight can slow you down.
"For me, I put on strength not to increase power but to endure the season.
"I'm up a few pounds. I feel good. I feel light. When you feel heavy, you run hard and break down a little more. I'm light on my feet, light on my toes."
Jacoby's OBP through 878 minor league at-bats was .411... in 2008, as a September call up with the Red Sox, his OPB was .394 (116 AB). The fortune tellers of Fan Graphs expect Ellsbury to hover in the .350 OBP range in 2009 - a few points up from his .336 mark from 2008.
Ellsbury might be able to surpass that mark if he can fix the the hole in his swing that opposing pitchers exploited in the second half of 2008. After posting a 27/19 BB/K rate through 167 ABs in April and May of last season, Jacoby could not earn a walk to save his lif and the Ks started piling up:
June: 20 Ks in 98 at-batsJuly: 17 Ks in 97 at-bats
August: 15 Ks in 94 at-bats
He started making more contact in August (.340 BA) and the strikeouts went down (8 in 94 AB), but the walks remained in the single digits... If Jacoby can learn to balance his aggresiveness with a keen eye at the plate, he should earn enough chances to steal 50 or 60 bases in 2009.
Jose Reyes has averaged 65 SBs per season over the past four years, while maintaining a .350 OBP and a 56/80 BB/K rate... Jacoby's was 41/80 in '08.
Bottom Line: Jacoby is young, he won't be sharing playing time with Coco Crisp and he seems as confident as ever in his abilities:
"The first time they caught me was on a pitchout," said Ellsbury. "So that's how I feel: When I get my jump, I'm going to make it every time."
So I ask you Red Sox Nation: Can Jacoby Ellsbury steal 60 bases in 2009?
Use the new POLL feature on the right hand side to cast you vote!
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