| 24 March 2009
Daisuke Matsuaka threw 98 pitches over 4 2/3 innings of work in Japan's win over the U.S. in the World Baseball Classic semifinals. He went on to win his second WBC MVP award after going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts (14.2 IP).
Great news right? Tony Mazz of the Boston Globe doesn't think so:
Overreacting, you say? Maybe yes, maybe no. Matsuzaka now has been with the Sox for two full seasons and won 33 games, suggesting his big league career is off to a glorious start. At the same time, Matsuzaka last year pitched fewer innings than any starter in history to win at least 18 games, and he faded badly as a rookie during the second half of a 2007 campaign in which he appeared to be running on fumes in September and October...
Now, with more than a week remaining in March, Matsuzaka is already tossing 98 pitches in 4 2/3 innings of tournament play.
If that doesn't make you a little nervous, it should.
While I don't like the idea of Dice-K throwing 98 pitches in March, I'm not as concerned as Tony is... and I'll explain why.
When Matsuzaka agreed to pitch for Japan in this year's WBC, I was as concerned as the next guy. But back in February we took a look at a few of the starters that chose to represent their country in the 2006 WBC and discovered the following:
Johan Santana gave Venezuela 8.1 innings of work, fanning 10 and posting a 2.16 ERA through two starts. In a Round 2 loss to Cuba, Santana threw 67 pitches over five innings... that was on March 14th. In comparison, Matsuzaka, in this year's WBC, threw 86 pitches over six innings in a 6-0 win over Cuba on March 15th.
86 is more than 67, but consider this: In 2006, Santana (27 at the time) went on to win the Cy Young Award. He pitched 233.2 innings that year, a career high at the time, and another eight in a playoff start against Oakland. He posted a 19-6 record with 245 strikeouts and a 2.77 ERA.
Matsuzaka will turn 29 in September. He started one more game than Santana did in 2006 and was up to 98 pitches, but is that reason enough to be nervous instead of excited?
Let's dig a little deeper...
Matsuzka is a good pitcher, maybe even a great pitcher. But everybody is different and every 'body' is different, right? So rather than compare him to Santana, let's just look at his post-2006 WBC stats for the Seibu Lions:
Matsuzaka made 25 starts for the Lions in 2006. He only threw 186 total innings, but posted a career best 2.13 ERA to go along with a 17-5 record and 200 strikeouts. It would appear that the 13 innings (3 starts) he pitched in the 2006 WBC did not slow him down...
So far I don't see much evidence to support the idea that Matsuzaka is going to fall apart this September, but Tony isn't saying Matsuzaka can't win another 15 games in 2009... he seems to more concerned with Dice-K's lack of innings pitched, bit over all and per game:
Of the 88 major league pitchers to qualify for the ERA title last season, Matsuzaka ranked 83d in innings, ahead of only Jason Marquis, Brandon Backe, Manny Parra, Ian Snell and John Lackey, the last of whom averaged nearly seven innings a start compared to Matsuzaka's 5 2/3.
Matsuzaka pitched 167.2 innings in 2008. Not the 200 innings you'd prefer from a starter, but there are two reason's for the low number;
1. Matsuzaka's stint on the DL resulted in just six innings pitched in June.
2. High pitch counts early in games.
Having to go on the disabled list certainly solidifies Tony's points from above. However, stating that Dice-K's 5.75 innings per start is also a result of a tired arm doesn't float with me.
Matsuzaka struggled to get beyond the 6th inning in 2008 because he walked 94 batters and refused to give in to hitters... not because his arm was tired or injured. In 2007 he walked 80 batters, but most of us were concerned with his one-inning meltdowns more that the walks. In 2008, it became apparent that Matsuzaka simply has a style of pitching that is frustrating to watch. This style also results in early exits, which leads to low inning totals on the season, but anyone who watched a single Matsuzaka start last season knows that the pitch totals weren't low.
In five September starts, Matsuzaka eclipsed the 100 pitch mark in four of those five games, despite averaging 5.4 innings per game. The Red Sox won 3 of those 5 games and Dice-K posted a 3.33 ERA and a .206 BAA that month - proving that his style, though frustrating, is effective.
All those innings and high pitch counts are going to catch up to Dice-K, but it won't happen in 2009. Tony says that the Red Sox might need Matsuzaka more than ever in 2009, noting the recent injuries to Beckett and Penny, the age of Wakefield and the possible strain on a young Jon Lester. But I think that's a "glass half empty" look at things.
Josh Beckett has been nasty this spring. Brad Penny has a long way to go, but looked great in his first start. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are young and have pitched well. And John Smoltz is wishing it was June already. A deep bullpen will enable Francona to pull starters without fear and that should keep everyone fresh throughout the season. That's my "glass is half full" approach.
Bottom Line: This article is not an attack on Tony's credibility. It's simply a different angle on the story. Matsuzaka pitched over 1,400 innings in eight years with the Seibu Lions. Add the 408 innings he's thrown for the Red Sox and you get 1,800 innings work on a 28 year-old arm... and that doesn't include the three years he pitched for Yokohama High School.But that doesn't mean he is destined to fall apart at 30. Johan Santana came back from the WBC and won the Cy Young Award at 27... is it such a stretch to think that Matsuzaka could do the same?
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