| 12 May 2009
David Ortiz hasn't hit a home run yet this season. Some think it's because his wrist still isn't fully healed from a 2008 injury. Some wonder if it's because he can't get a good pitch to hit, presumably because opposing teams are willing to walk him. And others think he's simply on the delcine...
Whatever the reason, you have to wonder how the long the Sox can tolerate a .224 hitter with zero home runs hitting in the 3 spot.
I suggest they drop him to the 5th spot in the lineup... here's why:
Many have argued that Ellsbury's speed is nice at the top of the order, but his career .334 OBP leaves you wanting. David Ortiz has a .381 career OBP, but it's was .445 in 2007, .369 in 2008 and despite 20 walks in 31 games, his OBP is just .338 this season.
Ortiz will continue to walk often, but if he doesn't start hitting doubles, if not homers, to go along with those walks... than he's simply a slow, mediocre batter in the middle of a very impressive one through six.
Papi does have 10 doubles already, putting him on pace for a respectable 44 total through 500 at-bats, but those doubles have not produced many runs. With 14 RBI so far this year, Ortiz is on pace for a mere 60 total, if he gets 500 at-bats... how that has happened with Ellsbury and Pedroia in front of him and off to decent starts is a bit confusing, but it does make you wonder how many RBI he'd have if he was hitting behind Youk, Lowell and Bay...
One argument for keeping Ortiz in the 3 spot is the lefty/righty mix within the lineup. But I would counter that Ortiz could simply switch with JD Drew and his .391 career OBP. This would preserve the lefty/righty mix and, let's face it, right now Drew (4 HR, 8 2B, 17 RBI) has more pop than the Large Father (0 HR, 10 2B, 14 RBI), more speed and an equal OBP.
JD Drew isn't exaclty crushing the ball either (.242 BA)... and he can't be trusted to stay healthy on a daily basis, but you can always slide Ortiz back into the 3 spot if Drew gets hurt and insert the fill-in right fielder at the bottom of the lineup.
Consider these final tid bits and I'll wrap this up:
1. Drew it .275 with a .416 OBP in the 3 hole in 2008.
2. Mike Lowell and Jason Bay have thrived in the 5 and 6 spots behind Youk. Imagine the damage Ortiz could do between Youk and Bay... or Bay and Lowell.
3. Through '06 and '07 Mike Lowell averaged 518 at-bats and 100 RBI with Boston hitting in the 5th of 6th spot in the lineup... Ortiz averaged 553 at-bats and 127 RBI during those same years. Couple that evidence with a solid lineup 1 through 7 and I don't see Ortiz falling short of his usual 100+ RBI.
Bottom Line: Right now Ortiz does not deserve the 3 spot. The Red Sox are second in the majors with 185 runs scored, so he isn't killing the production, but I think sqeezing him between Bay and Lowell at No. 5 and sliding Drew up to No. 3 would give the Sox even more run scoring potential... and it may even help Ortiz snap out of his funk.
I can hear the doubters asking why I think the likes of Varitek, Lugo and Green will offer more protection for Ortiz than Youk, Bay and Lowel... but I think Mike Lowell's numbers out of the 7th spot speak for themselves: 92 at-bats, 6 HR, 7 2B, 25 RBI, .340 OBP.
Thoughts?
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