| 27 May 2009
Jon Lester's frustration level has to be approaching Big Papi levels right now.
Once again he battled through the first through innings, getting strikeouts and throwing goose eggs on the scorboard... but when the Twins got their third look at Lester they exploded for 5 quick runs. And with Nick Blackburn dealing, the Sox managed just tow runs and lost 5-2.
Lester continues to say that these mid-game meltdowns are just individual moments of bad location, but the stats prove that he is struggling the most around the 50 pitch mark. Opposing batters have knocked in 19 RBI between Lester's 46th and 65th pitch and have hit five of the eleven homers he has allowed this year while hitting within this window...
It's tough to pull any useable data from those stats, other than to say that batters might be more comfortable facing Lester the third time through... but I also found this factoid interesting:
Lester is not throwing first pitch strikes... and most of the damage is happeneing when he goes down 1-0 or 2-0 to a hitter:
After 1-0 count - 101 AB, .356 BAA, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 16 BB
After 2-0 count - 40 AB, .425 BAA, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 12 BB
Compare that to another dominant lefty like Johan Sanatana...
After 1-0 count - 80 AB, .200 BAA, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 8 BB
After 2-0 count - 14 AB, .214 BAA, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 6 BB
... and it's pretty clear that Lester is struggling when he is forced to throw a strike.
Any baseball fan will tell you that getting ahead on that first pitch makes a huge difference, but the above stats include the total at-bat after Lester goes down 1-0... here's a look at his numbers, specifically when the count is 1-0...
.529 BAA, 2 HR, 7 RBI
... and if it he falls behind 2-0...
.545 BAA. 1 R, 4 RBI
... and that famous 3-1 "hitter's count"...
.545 BAA, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 8 BB
Bottom Line: When Lester throws a first pitch strike, batters are hitting a modest .233 against him... if he throws a ball... it's almost guaranteed he will lose the battle to that hitter.
Side Notes: Jacoby has another 2-hit game and extended his hitting streak to 21 games... he also stole two more bases, but remains 10 behind Carl Crawford for the lead in the AL.
David Ortiz was dropped to the 6th spot in the lineup yesterday and responded with a double, a walk and another strikeout. Blackburn was sharp last night and they stayed away from Papi all night, but until he can force opitchers to come inside, that approach is going to keep eating him up.
Dustin Pedroia also had a 2-hit night and is quietly batting .341 on the season...
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