| 01 May 2009
With April in the books, here's a look at what we've learned so far this season:
Keving Youkilis is a beast. He leads the majors with a .395 BA and a .505 OBP. He's also hit five ding dongs and has 15 RBI as the cleanup hitter. Coming into this season, I wasn't sure if Youk couold keep up his torid pace from 2007, but there's someting magical about that Viking beard... He finally avoided the second half slump last year, and the boys at Fan Graphs think Youk will still be in the .300's come September.
Starter struggles. In March, most baseball fans would have agreed that the Red Sox had the best 1 through 5 in baseball. Tim Wakefield is always a question mark, but he's a 12 game winner if he gets 30 starts and Brad Penny or Clay Buchholz was going to round out a solid starting rotation, lead by Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka.
Well, Dice-K hit the DL in April and is still two weeks away from returning... Josh Beckett just got pummeled by the Rays and has a 7.22 ERA to go along with a 3.2 BB/GS rate - more than double his 1.25 BB/GS mark from 2008... Jon Lester has been mediocre at best with a 1-2 record and a 5.40 ERA despite 33 strikeouts (5th in AL)... and Brad Penny has struggled, averaging 4.3 innings per start and posting an 8.66 ERA through 4 games.
Tim Wakefield has been the ace (2-1, 1.86) and has saved the bullpen and the team on a number of occasions, but as pitching coach John Farrell points out - we can't keep this up.
"Don't think we're not aware of what we've asked of them," pitching coach John Farrell said of the bullpen's heroics. "They've already been asked to pitch some stressful innings and we know we can't keep doing that."
Speaking of the bullpen. It's one of the best in baseball. Ramon Ramirez (12.1 IP) and Manny Delcarmen (13.0) both have 0.00 ERA's... Jonathan Papelbon hasn't dominated, but he does have six saves and a 1.74 ERA to go along with 17 K's in 10.1 innings... and youngsters Hunter Jones (5.1 IP, 5 K, 0 BB, 1 ER) and Micheal Bowden (2.0 IP, 2 K, 0 ER) have been called up to pitch in and have done an amazing job.
We knew the bullpen would be good, and we knew we have guys in the minors that could help out, but if the starters don't get their act together, the pen will useless in September and October.
Depth. A number of players have stepped up for injured "starters" and helped puch the Sox to first in the AL East. Justin Masterson has been outstanding filling in for the injured Matsuzaka, winning both his starts and alowing just two earned runs in essentially three starts, while fanning 13... Nick Green filled in nicely for Lugo and Lowrie, hitting .275 and making some nice plays in the field, despite five errors in 65 total chances... and Jon Van Every had a career game on Wednesday, sparking an 8th inning rally and hitting a game-winning homer in the 10th. He also pitched in last night's game, giving the bullpen a break.
Jason Bay is the new Papi. Bay has shown a flair for the dramatic this season, launching three 9th inning home runs, including a game winner against Mariano Rivera in the series sweep of the Yankees. He's also shown a staggering improvement in plate discipline, leading the majors with 23 walks and trailing only Youk and (ironically) Manny Ramirez in OBP at .490. FBAL gives Youk the Player of the Month for April, but my vote is for Jason Bay... their stats are almost idental, so I give Bay the edge for the improved BB/K rate: 23/17 (1.35) in '09 - 81/137 (0.59) in '08.
Mike Lowell ain't hurt, he's hot. Mike Lowell's 23 RBI ranks him 4th in the majors behind Albert Puljos (28), Carlos Pena (24) and Evan Longoria (24). Not bad for a guys that was nursing a surgically repaired hip tow months ago. He's also hitting .310 overall, and has already slapped 8 doubles, putting him on pace for 60 in 162 games - his career best was 47 in 2006.
Big Papi is homerless. David Ortiz still hasn't hit a home run. Should we be concerned? I say yes. Ortiz took a 9-game hitting streak into last night game before going 0-2 against Garza, so I'm not worried about his average. What concerns me is the lack of power, that dates back to 2008. Papi says his wrist is healthy, but it was his ailing knee that sucked the power out of him in 2008 and I think he's lost his power stroke due to adjusted mechanics.
The Large Father already has 7 doubles and his annual triple under his belt, so he may simply need to hit that first one to open the ding dong flood gates, but I suspect the 2009 Ortiz to look more like the 2007 model (52 2B, 35 HR) not the 2006 model (29 2B, 52 HR).
Bottom Line: It was a rocky start, but we're first in the East at 14-8 (.636) - the best W% in the American League. We're 10-2 at home and 8-3 against the East... not a bad start.
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