Pros & Cons: Matt Holliday

Matt Holliday, OF
Status: Free Agent, Type A
Age: 30 on 1/15/10

Pros: Holliday was a lock for at least 25 homers, 100 RBI, 100 runs and a .320 during his time with Colorado. He came close to matching those numbers in 2009 while splitting time with Oakland and St. Louis, but his 24 HR, 101 RBI, 94 R ,.313 BA totals were a little down from the norm. He was a beast in 63 games with the Cardinals: 1.023 OPS, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 42 R, 16 2B, .353 BA... running neck-and-neck with great Albert Puljos. He also offers better defensive stats than those of Jason Bay - the other big name on the Free Agent List.

Cons: His amazing second half run was impressive, but it seemed to prove that Holliday is a different player outside of the National League. His .832 OPS, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 52 R, 23 2B, .286 BA stats through 93 games in Oakland have some wondering if Holliday can be as successful in the AL - especially the AL East. We'll look closer at this below, but the other major con with Holliday is his agent Scott Boras. Boras has already stated that he expects Holliday to earn "Mark Teixeira money," meaning Holliday could be looking for as much as $180M over 8 years.

The Scoop: Bay and Holliday have been compared over and over again in the recent weeks and months, but there are three key differences between the two players.

1) Jason Bay has proven he can play in the AL East. Holliday has not. This gives Bay an edge, considering the small group of teams capable of affording his potential contract is topped by the Red Sox and Yankees. Holliday is a very good player, but St. Louis is not New York... or Boston.

2) Although their power numbers are similar, Holliday is the better overall hitter. Bay finished at .286 after hitting .192 through July. Holliday finished 2009 at .313 and never hit below .280 in a month after batting .240 in April.

3) Fangraphs says Holliday is by far the better defensive player, giving him a 5.3 UZR rating compared to Bay's -13.9.

Based on the three key factors above, Holliday seems like the better guy to spend $180M on. But what if he proves that he can't handle the AL East? That would be a colossal mistake. It's a fair question, but the stats below show that Hollliday has played pretty well against the AL East in his career and the rough, projected stats for 145 games in navy blue indicate that he could be a .300/15/85/85 guy at minimum. He's also posted solid numbers against American League opponents, so the concern that he is an NL-only player appears unjustified.

That said, it's one thing to swing through Boston or New York for a three-game series... the challenge is playing 162 games with the weight of an "Empire" or "Nation" on your shoulders. When David Ortiz and Jason Bay were struggling in the first half, Sox fans probably didn't come down on them hard as they might of if Big Papi wasn't "Big Papi" or if Jason Bay hadn't carried the Sox in to the postseason in 2008 and through April in 2009.

But the Yankees just won a the World Series and the buzz from 2004 and 2007 has turned into a hangover. The pressure cooker will be on full blast in 2010...

And if you're thinking Holliday padded his stats while playing AL teams while in Coors Field, take a look at his career number in AL parks:

Bottom Line: Holliday has been a remarkably consistent player through out his short career, but there's no doubt that his numbers are skewed thanks to four years in Colorado. Other than a mediocre first half playing for a mediocre Oakland A's club... Holliday appears capable of posting .300/30/100/100 lines for the next 4-6 years - especially if he's in the middle of a Yankee or Red Sox lineup.

I love Jason Bay and I have no problem offering him 4/18M... but if he wants more than that, I think I'd prefer to give Holliday the 5/$20. I just hope Boras doesn't push for more...