| 18 November 2009
Wagner's agent recently said that Wagner enjoyed his time in Boston and, despite expressing his desire to close again, would be willing to come back to the Red Sox as a set-up man for Jonathan Paplebon.
Theo Epstein and Red Sox Nation would welcome a healthy Wagner in 2010, but his price tag is simply too high.
“In an ideal world, we’d love to have Billy back if he were willing to accept a non-closer role. It seems like he is,’’ Sox general manager Theo Epstein said. “But we would have to restructure a few things with some other pieces of the club to be able to afford that luxury with what he’s likely to make next year.’’
As a veteran free agent, Wagner would not be guaranteed any particular salary through arbitration. He earned $10.5 million last season but pitched in only 15 games after recovering from elbow surgery.
Wagner could make more money as a closer for a team in need of a stopper, but his desire to win a Championship might play a factor in his decision. Wagner is 6th on the all-time saves list with 385 and is just five saves away from tying Dennis Eckersley for 5th place. But he needs 39 saves to catch Julio Franco for 4th place and it's unlikely that he will ever catch the ageless Mariano Rivera (526, 2nd) or Trevor Hoffman (591, 1st). Perhaps helping the Red Sox earn World Series title is a more realistic goal...
Taking money out of the equation for a minute. The Red Sox need a some help in the bullpen. Daniel Bard was great in 2009, but he is still growing. Hideki Okajima has been solid, but his ERA, WHIP and BAA numbers have increased year after year since coming to Boston in 2007. Manny Delcarmen continues to disappoint and Takshi Saito probably won't be back in Boston next season.
That means the Red Sox need some depth in the bullpen and Wagner is one of the better options out there. The Sox have already asked the Braves for medical records on Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Soriano and Gonzalez shared time as the closer in 2009 but neither player is a true closer and would have no problem being the set-up man in Boston. Soriano mad $6M in 2009 and Gonzalez made $3.5M, so either guy would come cheaper than Wagner... but can the handle the pressure in Boston?
Also, the Braves aren't likely to turn to Peter Moylan as the closer for 2010, so they will likely re-sign Soriano or Gonzalez... unless they want to go after FA closers Kevin Gregg, Fernando Rodney or Jose Valverde.
That brings us to the list of FA relievers. Chad Bradford (35) and his super-submarine style motion might be a nice addition. Octavio Dotel (36) has been a solid RP for the Chi Sox for the past two seasons and made $6M in 2009. Chan Ho Park (37) pitched well for the Phillies in 2009, but rumors have it that he wants to start if possible. Kiko Calero had a career year in Florida, is just 32 years old and mage less than $1M in 2009. And Brandon Lyon (30) could be an option as well, with his increased GB rate (47% in '09 from 40% in '08) thanks to an increased use of his slider. But his .229 BAIP and 1.96 home ERA/ 3.64 road ERA splits make me wonder if he simply benefited from playing in the expansive Comerica Park...
Bottom Line: If the Wagner and the Red Sox can agree to renegotiate his contract and bring him back for $6-8M, I think he's one of the best option out there... as long as his contract doesn't stop us from signing Bay or Holliday.
What do you guys think?
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