| 09 October 2009
John Lackey dominated the Red Sox last night, mixing his pitches and holding the Sox to just 4 hits through 7+ innings.
Lackey, the Angels ace, was 11-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 27 starts this season... but Jered Weaver was the best Angels starter, posting a 16-8 record with a 3.75 ERA. It won't get any easier for the Sox tonight.
Weaver killed he Red Sox in two starts this season, holding them to just one run and eight hits through 13.2 total innings, while fanning twelve and walking only three. As if that wasn't enough to make you nervous, Weaver much better in Anaheim than he was on the road this year, going 9-3 with a 2.91 ERA in 17 home starts.
In 2008, Weaver pitched against Boston out of the bullpen in the ALDS and earned the win after two shutout innings and a 12th inning RBI single by Eric Aybar. In 2007, he took the loss after holding the Sox to two runs (2 homers by Manny and Ortiz) but pitched well for five innings.
Many of the Red Sox have good numbers against Weaver, despite his dominance this season: JD Drew is 6 for 17 (.353) with a homer, Mike Lowell is 5 for 16 (.313), Victor Martinez is 3 for 8 (.375), Kevin Youkilis is 6 for 20 (.300) with two ding dongs and David Ortiz is 7 for 20 (.350) with two homers and 9 RBI.
But Ortiz was 0 for 5 with two Ks this season against Weaver and had three wiffs last night. Weaver's starts against Boston came on April 10 and May 12th, so one could argue that his amazing 0.66 ERA against them is a little misleading. The Red Sox, and Ortiz, will be looking to atone for last night, so we'll find out if Weaver is the real deal or not tonight.
Conclusion: Weaver will be pitching with alot of emotion tonight. He could put his team up 2-0 with a win and dismiss all this "hex" crap... and he'll be pitching for his good friend Nick Adenheart. A smart baseball fan will tell you that emotions can be trouble for a baseball player... this game is about focus and control. Weaver has been great this year, but the pressure of this game might cause him to falter... let's hope the Sox can take advantage if he does.
We'll also find out if Josh Beckett is still capable of taking his game to another level in October. Beckett experienced back problems during the last week of the season, but says he's healthy and readty to go tonight after getting sone cortionzone shots and pitching a few side sessions over the past few days.
The Sox will keep Victor Martinez behind the plate tonight, even though Jason Varitek was rumored to get the start yesterday. Martinez, Lowell and Ortiz all hit Weaver better than Tek, so this is the right move to make...
Beckett is plenty capable of keeping the Angels in check, but the Sox will need all their best bats in the lineup if they want tie this thing up a 1-1 before heading to Boston.
Beckett won 17 games this year and seemed poised for another amazing odd-year season after winning 20 in 2007, but started over throwing in August and coughed up 12 homers in 6 starts that month, finishing with a 5.03 ERA. He got back on track in September and had his best start of the month against these Angels - holding them to 3 runs and fanning 8 through 8 innings, but took the 3-4 loss.
Conclusion: Josh hasn't been great against the Angels in his career (2-3, 4.13 ERA, 8 GS)... and isn't much better in Angel Stadium (1-2, 4.05 ERA, GS)... and he was much better at home that he was on the road this year (7-5, 4.13 ERA, .271 BAA)... but he does have the postseason resume to make us forget all of that. Let's hope he ads to that resume wit ha solid outing tonight.
Key Matchups
Kendrik/Izturis vs Beckett
Howie Kendrick is 8 for 19 (.421) with a homer agaionst Beckett and hit . in the second half. Macier Izturis may get the call tonight because he is 10 for 27 (.370) versus Beckett in his career and is a switch hitter. Erick Aybar could be the on man out but he kills the Sox and had a big hit last night... It's funny to be ignoring the big guns like Vladdy, Hunter and Abreu, but these are the guys that have done the most damage against Beckett.
JD Drew vs Weaver
Drew (6 for 17, .353) is second only to Victor Martinez (3 for 8, .375) against Weaver, but Drew took him deep earlier this year and Weaver has trouble with lefties: .271 BAA. V-Mart is likely to bat from the left side as well and a number of Sox players have hit Weaver well, but I have a hunch it will be Drew that gets the big hit tonight.
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