| 07 October 2009
Hey guys,
With all this waiting around for Game 1, the blogosphere and local media outlets have been buzzing with all kinds of analysis and player breakdowns.
Rather than add to the pile, I'll simply leave you with some thoughts on this series before I breakdown Game 1 later on:
John Lackey doesn't scare me. The baseball gods seem to favor the Red Sox whenever he's on the mound. Last time we saw Lackey, he and his teammates were literally throwing away the game in the 6th and the Sox went on to win 4-1 despite getting 7+ from their ace.
He was 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA last year against Boston, but he's still just 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA in his career against the Sox and he's lost his last three playoff starts agsinst us.
Scott Kazmir does scare me. It's very realistic that the Sox will come back to Fenway with the series notched at 1-1. That means Clay Buchholz will be battling Kazmir in a must win Game 3. Both guys dominated down the stretch, but Buchholz imploded in his last two starts (13 ER, 6 HR) while Kazmir posted a 1.75 ERA through his last six starts.
The Sox hit lefties well (.812 OPS, 2nd) and they have plenty of experience with Kazmir... the key will be to get him out of the game early. Despite his second hald surge, Kaz averaged six innings per start, and has struggled to go deep in the game his entire career. The Red Sox were the the 3rd most patient team in baseball this year (659 BB)... you want to be aggresive in the postseason, but patience can be a virtue against Kazmir.
Coming back to Fenway should give us the momentum, but Kazmir could squash that with a solid outing in Game 3...
Our defense is 10 times better than it was in April. Mike Lowell is healthy and Gonzo has taken some pressure off of him while handeling short like the pro that he is. But the Halos will be running alot this week and that can often lead to errors - no matter how many Gold Gloves you have. It also takes pitchers out of their game:
Lester: Bases empty - 1.94 ERA, 37/125 BB/K ... Runners on - 5.18 ERA, 27/100 BB/K
Beckett: Bases empty - 1.85 ERA, 25/124 BB/K ... Runners on - 7.08 ERA, 31/75 BB/K
Buchholz: Bases empty - 2.73 ERA, 19/41 BB/K ... Runners on - 6.18 ERA, 17/27 BB/K
Matsuzaka: Bases empty - 2.59 ERA 13/24 BB/K ... Runners on - 7.97 ERA, 17/30 BB/K
Granted, the Halos have always been a good running team and it's gotten them nowhere against the Sox in the playoffs, but it's still concerning. Foucs and dicipline will be crucial.
Joey Gathright is going to do something big this postseason. He may not make the roster for this series, but he'll be asked to make a big play before this is all over - trust me.
Jon Lester will be the MVP of the playoffs for the Red Sox. I can't predict that we will win it all, but I will predict that Lester will have a 2007 Beckett-like postseason.
That's all I have for now. Leave your comments below and check back for a closer look at the Game 1 match-up later on.
Go Twins!
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