| 14 October 2009
We've been busy with some behind the scenes stuff here at The Bottom Line headquarters, but MLB Trade Rumors compiled some interesting tid-bits this morning and I wanted to see what you guys thought:Boston's season may have ended prematurely, but that just means the New England hot stove fires up sooner. Here's some notes from Amalie Benjamin of The Boston Globe and Joe McDonald of The Providence Journal:
To no one's surprise, Jason Bay indicated that he'll dip his toe in the free agent waters, saying he'd be doing himself "a disservice" if he didn't look around.
My Two Cents: We all saw this coming when Bay and and the Sox couldn't lock anything down during the season. What's frustrating about this situation is that Scott Boras and Matt Holliday will play a major role in what Bay eventually agrees to sign for this off season. I think the Angels will push to re-sign Bobby Abreu and that means the Yankees and Sox will likely end up bidding against each other for Bay and Holliday only to end up with one guy on each team and inflated contracts for both.
What concerns me is that the Theo Epstein is not afraid to let Bay walk if the price does get too high. If we don't sign Bay or Holliday... there just aren't many other good options - and the Sox need to ADD a big bat... not subtract one.
Alex Gonzalez's $6MM club option "might be a little rich for the Sox," so the two sides are likely to sit down and find a more palatable number. Nick Green could also come back, though it would strictly be a depth signing.
MTC: I don't imagine Gonzo wants to go back to playing for a team like the Reds after tasting the postseason this year. I expect the two sides to work something out and I think it's a smart move to keep him. Theo is going to need the prospects to go after a big bat... or another starter (see Felix) we can't have him wasting them on another bad short stop.
Unless Boston attempts to rekindle talks with the Mariners about Felix Hernandez, their 2010 rotation looks fairly settled.
MTC: With Buchholz finally emerging and Matsuzaka not headed to the WBC this off season, I feel pretty good about our front four. But the past few years have proven that you can never have too much pitching. I'd love to see the Sox go after King Felix, but they won't be able to trade for Hernandez and Adrian Gonzalez... so what would you rather have - a nasty 1 through 5 or the big bat we've been lacking?
As Benjamin notes, Boston's farm system doesn't offer much at the upper levels of the minors, so instead the team is "faced with re-signing their players, checking out a less-than-stellar free agent market, or going the trade route."
MTC: Theo is going to be busy this off season. David Ortiz is no longer a reliable DH, but he'll be almost impossible to trade... Mike Lowell proved he can still play, but the Sox need to look long term and 3B/1B... signing a left fielder is going to gobble up a ton of cash, and they need to think about keeping Paplebon and Beckett (or not)... the current roster consists of guys from the farm like Youkilis, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester, Papelbon and Bard. We could trade some prospects now but that will only lessen the chances of another wave of talent like that in the near future...
Rocco Baldelli's future with the club is up in the air, as GM Theo Epstein said they'll "sit down and talk about what the fit looks like next year -- if there is one."
MTC: I'm not sure I want Rocco back, but after looking at the free agent options, I don't see anyone that looks any better. If nothing else, Baldelli (28) is the youngest of all the free agent outfielders and still has .300, 15 HR, 50 RBI potential, but don't be surprised to Theo bring in a new back-up OF via trade.
In a radio appearance this morning, ESPN's Steve Phillips said he expects Boston to dangle Jonathan Papelbon, perhaps for an impact bat, according to WEEI's Alex Speier. The free agent market for closers isn't great, and at least Papelbon offers two years of club control. Those will be two expensive years, though.
MTC: The Sox may dangle Paps out there because they would be doing themselves a "disservice" not too... but Papelbon is still a Top 5 closer in this league. Maybe this will scare Paps into keeping his mouth shut this off season, but there's no need to trade Paps this year unless the deal is AMAZING. I'd much rather see him close while Bard gets more MLB experience and make a decision next year...
What do you guys think of all this? Hit up the comments section...
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