Pros & Cons: Ben Sheets

First up... Ben Sheets, SP Status: Free Agent Age: 31 Pros: In 2008, Sheets went 13-9 for the Milwaukee Brewers while posting a 3.09 ERA and a .241 BAA. He made 31 starts and threw five complete games that year. When he's healthy, Sheets has a power arm and solid command. After spending all of last season on the DL after opting for forearm surgery, the Red Sox could sign Sheets to a short-term, short-money deal like they did with Penny and Smoltz last season. Cons: See Penny and Smoltz... Seriously, Sheets has tons of upside, but so did Penny and Smoltz. Penny pitched in the 7th inning just four times in 24 starts with the Red Sox and and lasted 1/3 of an inning each time. He may have been a 16 game winner in the NL West, but it didn't carry over in the AL East. Sheets would probably not be ready to start until mid-season, much like Smoltz in 2009, but Smoltz never really got it going while in Boston. That said, Smoltz was 42... Sheets is 31. The biggest concern with Sheets is his health. Since 2004, he's averaged 23 starts per season. Sheets probably won't be ready to start the 2010 season, so that's a negative in itself. The Scoop: Sheets has flexor tendon surgery in February. Jason Jennings had the same operation in August of 2007 and it took him over a year to come back and when he did, he went 0-5 with a 8.56 ERA in six starts. Jennings is nowhere near the pitcher that Sheets is, but that's scary information... How good could Sheets be? He offers a similar arsenal to Josh Beckett's and Sheets' 2008 secondary stats are similar to Beckett's dominating 2007 numbers: Sheets ('08): FB (61.8%), CB (33%), CH (4.6%) Beckett ('07): FB (63%), CB (25%), CH (11.5%) Sheets ('08): Ground Ball (40%), Fly Ball (41%), Line Drive (18.3%) Beckett ('07): Ground Ball (47%), Fly Ball (36.9%), Line Drive (15.8%) Don't get me wrong, Beckett was a force in 2007, but the peripherals suggest that Sheets could do well in Boston. Beckett won 20 games in 2007, but posted a .316 BABIP. Sheets won 13 games for the Brewers in 2008, but posted a .290 BABIP. The Red Sox offer a better offense and defense than the Brewers. If Sheets can keep the ball down, he could be very successful in Boston. There's no denying that Sheets has upside, but will he come to Boston on a discount? Before the surgery, Sheets could have made $10-12M in 2009 if he had agreed to stay with Milwaukee after the 2008 season, but he opted to test the market and the arm surgery cost him a 2-year deal with Texas. The Brewers say they are still interested in bring Sheets back, but he shouldn't expect that kind of money now. Adding Sheets could be a cost effective way of strengthening a mediocre Brewers rotation and Brad Penny proved that jumping to the AL East from the NL can be tough, but the Sox have more money to risk than the Brewers do. The Sox would likely offer him a Penny-like deal: 1 year, $8.75M or a Smoltz-like deal: 1 year $5.5M plus lots of performance incentives. The second option is more appealing to me for two reasons: 1) The Sox need every last penny they can find to keep Jason Bay. We got out bid on Teixeira and looks where it got us... 2) Incentives are the way to go with a previously injured player. Let him earn the money by working hard to get back and performing on the field. Bottom Line: Penny and Smoltz didn't pan out, but Theo says he will continue to look for low risk, high reward opportunities. Matsuzaka is still a question mark right now and Wake is having back surgery and could be done for good. If the Sox can't add Felix Hernandez to the rotation, making Buchholz the best No. 5 in the game, than the Sox would be wise to grab Sheets for short money. What do you guys think?