Pros & Cons: Erik Bedard

Erik Bedard, SP
Status: Free Agent (Type B)
Age: 30

Pros: Bedard offers a fastball in the low to mid 90's and has had a nasty curveball in the past, though it hasn't been as good since the shoulder surgery. His AL East experience makes him interesting to the Red Sox. He spent five years in Baltimore and a combined went 28-16 in 2006 and 2007, while posting a 3.47 ERA over that time frame. His 200+ K, mid-3.00 ERA, 12+ win potential makes him a Lester-esque lefty.

Cons: Bedard has only made 15 starts in each of his last two seasons and has only started 30+ games once in his six full major league seasons. He is currently recovering from surgery on his shoulder to fix a torn labrum and an inflamed brusa and may not be fully ready to start until June. Bedard is at his best when he is aggresive, but he often gets in trouble when he starts nibbling the corners. All the injuries could make him even less aggressive in 2010...

Here's the Scoop: The Red Sox have plenty of options when it comes to previously injured starters, but Bedard is the only one with AL East experience. Ben Sheets (arm), Rich Harden (shoulder) and Mark Mulder (shoulder) would all be coming from the National League.

Brad Penny proved that the transition to the AL, especially to the AL East can be tough. Penny won 16 games in 2006 and 2007 with the Dodgers, but finished his time in Boston with 7-8 record and a 5.61 ERA.

That's why Bedard's AL experience is so important. A closer look at his career numbers reveal the following:

vs BOS: 5-4 (12), 4.25 ERA, 60/39 K/BB, .205 BAA
vs NYY: 4-5 (12), 4.32 ERA, 62/24 K/BB, .250 BAA
vs TOR: 2-4 (11), 5.00 ERA, 51/20 K/BB, .290 BAA
vs TB: 11-3 (19), 3.03 ERA, 113/38 K/BB, .258 BAA
vs BAL: 1-0 (2), 2.61 ERA, 15/4 K/BB, .162 BAA

TOTAL: 23-16 with a 3.93 ERA and a .233 BAA.

Not great, but no bad for a guy that would be fighting for the No. 5 spot in the Red Sox rotation. Bedard has dominated the Rays, but it should be noted that he last faced them on April 8th of 2008. He was 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in four 2007 starts against the Rays... but they were the worst team in baseball that year at 66-96 (.407 W%).

In fact, Bedard was even better against the Rays in 2006, going 4-1 in 6 starts with a 2.75 ERA... but the 2006 Rays were even worse than the 2007 squad: 61-101 (.377 W%). My point is: During his best seasons with Baltimore he beat up on the Rays, earning 7 of his 28 wins over that span against the worst team in the majors. Conversely, in 2006 as an example, he was 3-5 with a 4.39 ERA against the Yankees (1st in ALE), Jays (2nd) and Sox (3rd).

I'll admit, I've dug deep into stats from two and three years ago, but some Sox fans have told me they prefer Bedard over Harden or Sheets because of his AL East experience and I was curious to see just how good he really was back then. For the record, he was a combined 3-4 with a 4.92 ERA in 8 starts against the best teams in the AL in '08 & '09 (LAA, TB, NYY, BOS)... not very encouraging.

If Bedard were to join the Red Sox in 2010, he'd be facing an improved Yankee lineup and a completely different team Rays team from the one he saw in '06 and '07. He has the raw stuff to be a great No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but he'll be 31 in March and I'm not sure he's ready to accept that kind of role. His injuries will probably force him to take a one-year deal and the Red Sox have the money and the staff to take on the project... but I'm not convinced he'll be any better than Harden.

Bottom Line: Harden made $7M last year, Bedard made $7.75M... but They will likely command a similar 1-year deal so the Sox will need to decide if they want another lefty in Bedard or the younger pitcher in Harden.