| 22 October 2009
Rich Harden, SP Status: Type B Free Agent Age: 28
Pros: Harden will turn 28 this November, the prime age for a starter. In 2008 he posted a combine 10-2 record with a 2.06 ERA while splitting time between Oakland and Chicago. When healthy, Harden has a mid-90's fastball and a deadly changeup and has averaged over a strikeout per inning over his career.
Cons: Staying healthy has been a problem for Harden. In seven major league season, he's only started 30+ games once... in 2004. His second highest total was the 26 games he started for Chicago this season. Harden (6'1", 195 lbs) has a Pedro-like (5' 11", 193 lbs) frame and throws with the same intensity and some feel this has been the source of his various injuries. Harden shut himself down in mid-September to preserve his ailing shoulder and some this he's not 100% healthy right now.
The Scoop: The Red Sox need some protection at the No. 5 spot in case Tim Wakefield can't pitch come April 2010 and Sean McAdam thinks Harden will be high on the Red Sox list options. Harden made $7 million in 2009, closing out the 4-year deal the Cubs bought from the Athletics. The Sox gave Brad Penny $8.75M and John Smoltz 5.5 plus incentives, so a 1-year deal around $8M could land Harden... but at 28, he's likely to be looking for a multi-year contract.
The Cubs don't seem interested in offering Harden a multi-year deal, even though he told the media he hopes to remain with Chicago. The issue here is health.
Harden came into the 2009 with a tear in his shoulder and opted to work through it. To his credit, he started 26 games for the Cubs and fanned a career high 171 batters, but he also posted a 4.03 ERA a 1.34 WHIP and 23 homers... more than double his season average. Harden says he's healthy, but the numbers don't lie.
That said, the Red Sox have one the best medical staffs and pitching coaches in baseball. They will poke and prod Harden for the truth about his shoulder and if he is healthy, John Farrell has the know-how to harness the kid's intensity and make him a winner.
Harden has a similar build and repertoire as Jon Lester. Both guys are around 6 feet tall and a hair under 200 lbs. Both guys can wrack up the strikeouts thanks to a solid fastball and a good changeup.
Lester said he planned to mix in the changeup more in 2009 and Fangraphs had Lester as a two-pitch starter this year (FB 93%, CH 7%). A simplified approach made Lester one of the best pitchers in the league... maybe the same could work for Harden who mixed in a slider (9%), cutter (5.5%), changeup (10%) curveball (3%) and split-fingered fastball (6%) with his fastball (66%).
I'll leave you with this: Harden's career stats against the Top 6 OPS teams in 2009.
15-9 (34 GS), 5.55 ERA .253 BAA (OAK and CHC)
vs NYY: 1-2 (6), 4.50 ERA, .266 BAA
vs BOS: 2-1 (5), 6.57 ERA, .242 BAA (6 ding dongs - most by any opponent)
vs LAA: 5-3 (13), 3.96 ERA, .235 BAA
vs COL: 0-1 (1), 12.00 ERA, .385 BAA (April 2009)
vs TB: 2-1 (5), 6.57 ERA, .242 BAA
vs PHI: 4-1 (4), 1.33 ERA, .122 BAA
Bottom Line: Ben Sheets and Rich Harden have ton of upside, but both come with health concerns. If Wake can recover from back surgery and give the Sox 15-20 starts, the Sox can afford to play if safe with Harden. If he's willing to take a one-year deal and prove his health and worth, the Sox could build in an option or extend him at 29 for two or three more years.
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