| 21 September 2009
Nick Cafardo talked with some scouts about Jason Bay and Matt Holliday in an effort to determine who would sign a bigger deal this offseason and who wold be the left fielder in Boston in 2010:
While money for free agents should continue to shrink, two who could get their share are Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. They are similar in a lot of ways, which raises the question: Which would you rather have playing for the Red Sox?
Holliday's stats have always been linked to Coors Field, but this guy can hit, period.
He hit .319 with 128 homers and 483 RBIs in five seasons at Coors. He started out poorly in Oakland, but before he was dealt to the Cardinals, he was up to .286 with 11 homers and 54 RBIs. In St. Louis, he's hit .358 with 12 homers and 48 RBIs in 187 at-bats. Don't tell me Busch Stadium is Coors Field. And what do you think Holliday would do at Fenway?
Bay is a .280 career hitter, compared with Holliday at .318. Their career on-base percentages are pretty comparable - .386 for Holliday, .377 for Bay. Holliday strikes out far less; his high is 126, while Bay should surpass his high of 156 this season.
Holliday is only 29 while Bay turns 31 today.
Bay, of course, is tried and true in Boston. When he first came over in the Manny Ramírez deal, we thought it might take Bay a while to adjust to big-market Boston from Pittsburgh, where losing is a ritual. That wasn't the case.
Is Holliday a National League player? He has spent 5 1/2 of his six years in that league, so you'd have to say yes. Was Oakland an aberration or did he merely get off to a poor start?
In the field, "Bay is more athletic,'' said one talent evaluator. "He has the clear edge out there.''
Both have a high percentage in base stealing.
So who gets the bigger contract?
One prominent agent who doesn't represent either player said, "Holliday will make the most, because he's a better overall pure hitter. I think scouts would say Holliday has fewer holes in his swing.''
Holliday or Bay at Fenway?
"I think Holliday would be as prolific at Fenway as he was at Coors,'' said the talent evaluator.
MLB Trade Rumors also added some informational points and SI.com's Jon Heyman thinks both players could earn a 7-year, $145M contract this offseason.
Back in May, I asked you guys who you would rather have in Boston for the next 3-6 years. At the time, Bay was cruching the ball and Holliday was struggling in Oakland, so Bya was the clear favorite. But Cafardo makes some good points above.
Holliday was always more likely to hit above .300 than Bay, but Bay has once again reached the 30+, 100 RBI mark and he should finish 2009 right around his career .280 BA.
Holliday has been on a tear (.360, 16 HR, 60 RBI) since getting out of Oakland and into a solid lineup in St. Louis, so you have to wonder what kind of damage he would do in Boston.
Bay has proven that he can hack it hear in Boston. Holliday hasn't. But Holliday, does have the better eye and the better average - something Theo and Co. appreciate. But if the Sox want Holliday, they will have to deal with Scott Boras... and that might be enough to force the Sox to stick with Bay.
Bottom Line: The Red Sox are one of the few teams able to hand out the type of contract that these guys will be asking for. They also NEED a left fielder. One of them will be in Boston next year and it's really a win-win either way for Red Sox Nation.
Who do you guys want in Boston next year?
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