| 15 September 2009
Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his return to the major leagues tonight when he starts against John Lackey and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
Dice-K will have his work cut out for him, but solid outing tonight could make Matsuzaka the Red Sox' secret weapon in October.
Clay Buchholz has proven (at least to me) that he can be our No. 3 starter in the playoffs, but Tim Wakefield is pretty much done and Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden are works in progress.
That means Matsuzaka is going to have to rise to the occasion, but don't forget... it wasn't too long ago that Jon Lester surprised us all in October after a mediocre regular season.
In 2007, Lester was called up late July and went 4-0 with 7 no decisions and a 4.57 ERA. He struggled with his command (31 BB in 63 IP) and averaged 5.7 innings per start, but the Sox called on him for three innings against Cleveland and he pitched well enough to earn the Game 4 start in the World Series.
Lester's story is more similar to Clay Buchholz' 2009 season that Matsuzaka's, but my point is this: In June of 2007, no one expected Jon Lester to be winning games in the World Series - but he did. Matsuzaka currently has much more "big game experience" than Lester did then. If he's healthy and in control, it's not a stretch to envision him winning a big game in the postseason for the Red Sox.
Matsuzaka will be thrown into the fire tonight against the league's second best offense (.286 BA, 1st / 789 R, 2nd). He's 0-4 at home this season and 0-1 in four career starts against the Halos. That includes an post season start in 2008 that the Sox won 7-5, but Dice-K took the ND and another post season start in 2007 that the Sox won 6-3... and Dice-K took the ND. He averaged 4.6 innings per start in those outings thanks to 15 hits and 6 walks, but he limited the Angles to three runs in each game and the Sox were able to pull ouot the victory.
Good stuff right?
Okay, not so much, but you kinda have to wipe the 2009 slate clean with Dice-K and hope for good things in these next four starts.
He held the minor leaguers to a .228 and fanned 23 while walking 9 through 21 rehab innings... so that's promising.
Unfortunatley, he'll be facing John Lackey, who has been on a tear as of late. Lackey is coming off of back-to-back complete games in which he allowed just one run, but his last thres starts were against Seatlle, KC and Oakland. I'm willing to bet that the Red Sox offense will offer up a little more of a challenge, especially at Fenway Park.
Victor Martinez is 10 for 21 (.476) against lackey and riding a 15-game hitting streak, so if he isn't behind the plate (Tek may be in there due to the language barrier) he better be in the lineup somewhere. My guess is at first base, since Youk is 5 for 17 (.294) with 2 homers and Ortiz is 10 for 30 (.300), while Mike Lowell is 3 for 19 (.158).
Then again, Lowell is second only to Pedroia (.324) with a .317 BA at Fenway anmd 12 of his 17 ding dongs have come at home... so who knows what Tito will do.
Bottom Line: Matsuzaka is going to nibble. He's going to walk a few guys. That's just what he does. But Daisuke says he's health and ready to face major league hitters... and Farrell and Francona think so too:
"He has done an outstanding job of committing to a program and getting himself in what we consider, just to the naked eye, better shape," Farrell said. "He's reshaped his body. He's added core strength. He's gotten the strength levels in his shoulder back to a level where he was a year ago. I think he feels good about himself as well, so we're all looking forward to his next time out here."
That time comes tonight. Matsuzaka said he's excited to return.
"I know it took me some time to get here, but I was able to use that time to prepare," he said. "I just hope I can apply everything I was preparing for in my start."
While the Red Sox are as curious as anyone to see what he has, they also know how badly he wants to salvage this season.
"He's motivated, there's no doubt about that," Farrell said. "To his credit, he didn't turn his back on the remainder of this season and that's obvious by the commitment he's put into this work. He's a fierce competitor. I think that natural instinct in him will bring out the ability he has currently to do what he can for our team."
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