| 10 September 2009
So I'm sitting here at work listening to Tanguay and Zolak on 98.5 The Sports Hub and they are claiming that most on Red Sox Nation appears to "drinking the Kool Aid" and that they refuse to admit that the Red Sox are going to have a tough time making the playoffs and succeeding in October.
I thought it would be fun to test this theory by attempting to predict the rest of the games for the Sox, Ranger and Angels. Here are my thoughts:
The Red Sox will do the following...
2-1 vs TB
2-1 vs LAA
2-1 @ BAL
2-2 @ KC
1-2 @ NYY
2-1 vs TOR
3-1 vs CLE
... and finish the year at 95-67.
The key here is beating up the demorlaized Rays this weekend with Lester, Beckett and Buchholz and then taking 2 of 3 from the Angels. The Halso don't have an off day, so we should see Lackey (5.54 ERA vs BOS), Saunders and Sanatana. Lackey can be good, but we own him and Santana has been a work in progress all season. Only Saunders and his recent success (3-0, 2.10 ERA in last 3 starts) scare me... although we will be throwing Byrd and Matsuzaka that series... so that scares me too.
I predict a modest road trip (5-5), despite the fact that we're playing the O's and Royals, but the Yankees series could prove to be crucial. The Yanks will have the AL East locked up by then, but don't expect them to go easy on the Sox. You know they'd rather face the no-name Rangers than the Sox or Angels in the first round and the don't to lose the season series when a 9-9 is possible.
I don't think 14 wins is too lofty a goal, but it is a "magic number" for the Red Sox... if you look at my predictions for Texas and LA.
In short, I think the Halos have a tough road ahead of them and will go 13-11 down the stretch thanks to the upcoming series in Fenway, four games against the Yanks and six more games against the Rangers. They'll finish at 96-66 and win the AL West by two games even though Texas has the easier schedule and could sweep the Mariners in their final three games.
The Rangers will go 15-8 to close out the year, but they won't be able to steal the division title from the Angels unless they sweep a few series - sepcifically the two against LA. I think they could win all three against Seattle and they should win 5 of 7 against Oakland, but if the Angels and Red Sox win 60% of thier remaining games, the Rangers will fall one win shy of a playoff spot with a 94-68 record.
Bottom Line: 15-8 will not be hard for the Rangers to accomplish, so the Red Sox and Angels will have pressure on them through the final game. Should the Sox falter in KC like they did in Chicago this past week, it could cost them everything. But if they surprise us in New York, it could be huge.
I'm no "pink hat," but the wild card spot is the Sox' to lose. All they need to do is win one series at a time.
Thoughts?
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