| 12 February 2010
2010 Fan Projections: As we fight our way through January and February towards the start of a new baseball season, we'll be looking at each player on the Red Sox roster and predicting how they will perform in 2010. But we want you guys to get in on the action too! Use the form at the bottom of each post to submit your projections for each player. After the 2010 season, we'll announce who did the best and award some prizes to the winners!
Click a name to make other 2010 projections:
Clay Buchholz, SP
Assuming Daisuke Matsuzaka returns to the rotation without any issues, Clay Buchholz will be battling Tim Wakefield for the last spot in the starting rotation this spring. Buchholz has two things going for him: His 4-1 record, 2.87 ERA and 29/9 K/BB ration is September of 2009 and Wake's experience as a reliever, which makes him the more likely choice to start the year in the bullpen.
Theo Epstein has passed on a number of trade offers that have included Clay Buchholz and this may the year Clay finally proves his worth. While struggling through all of 2008, Buchholz threw his 21.4% of the time, but in 2009, he switched gears and used his fastball and slider more often. The result was a decrease in line drives and in increase in groundballs, which in turn lead to more outs and fewer runs. If Buchholz can keep that mojo flowing in 2010, he could be the pitcher the Red Sox have always hoped he would be.
But Buchholz is still a young player and is still developing. Here's one example: Assuming Buchholz throws an average of five pitches per batter, opposing batters would get their second look at him around the 45 pitch mark. In 2009, Buchholz posted his worst numbers during pitches 45 through 75, posting a 6.18 ERA overall and a 7.50 ERA while presumably facing the top of the lineup for the second time.
For comparison, Jon Lester owned a 2.09 ERA the second time through opposing lineups last season. So what can we expect from Buchholz this season?
Tim Wakefield's role will play a major part in those predictions. If Clay forces Wake into the pen with a strong spring, he'll likely earn 25-30 starts this year, and if he pitches like he did in September, he should win 10-15 of those games. But if he doesn't impress during Spring Training, he could find himself back in Pawtucket to start the 2010 season.
My guess is he dominates ST rosters like he has dominated AAA lineups, but posts modest numbers as a full time major league starter.
Bottom Line Projection: 168 IP, 30 GS, 11 wins, 9 losses, 4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 172 Ks
Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Buchhy this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...
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