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2010 Fan Projections: Tim Wakefield
Written by Rob Munstis   
Friday, 05 February 2010 08:55

2010 Fan Projections: As we fight our way through January and February towards the start of a new baseball season, we'll be looking at each player on the Red Sox roster and predicting how they will perform in 2010. But we want you guys to get in on the action too! Use the form at the bottom of each post to submit your projections for each player. After the 2010 season, we'll announce who did the best and award some prizes to the winners!

Click a name to make other 2010 projections:

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard

 

Tim Wakefield, SP

wakefield

Projecting Tim Wakefield's 2010 season is going to be tricky. He has stated that he is healthy and planning to start this year, but unless there is an injury or setback elsewhere in the rotation, he and Clay Buchholz will be battling for that 5th spot in the rotation during Spring Training.

Even if the Red Sox decide to make keep Wake in the rotation, he has struggled to stay healthy and/or effective in the second half since 2004. If he falters, the Sox won't hesitate to swap him out with Buchholz.  What may be up for debate is how long the leash will be...

The Red Sox have a few options here and their decisions will directly effect Wake's stats in 2010. Knowing that Wakefield, 42,  tends to breakdown in the second half, the Red Sox may choose to start Buchholz and move Wake to the bullpen to start the year. Theoretically, this will keep Wakefield fresh and enable him to jump in for a few spot starts if another starter struggles or gets hurt. Personally, I think this makes the most sense because it won't hinder Buchholz's development and we're more likely to need Wake down the stretch than we are in April.

Bill James made his predictions early in the offseason and expects Wakefield to make just 16 starts this season:

James on Wakefield: 16 GS, 6-5, 4.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

In 2009, Justin Materson, Paul Byrd, Junichi Tazawa and Micheal Bowden combined for 17 starts as the collective "Long Man." They tallied a 7-10 record with a 5.87 ERA including starts and relief appearances... so Wake would be an upgrade if he stayed in the bullpen all season if James' predictions hold true.

Further backing those predictions are Wake's four years in the bullpen from 1999 to 2002, where he averaged 16 starts (159 IP), 8 wins, 9 losses and a 4.31 ERA.

But what if Wake gets 20 or 30 starts this year? What can we expect from the aging knuckler? Predicting the success of a knuckleball pitcher of Wakefield's caliber is like trying to predict the weather. We know the temperature will hover in the 30s in January, but sometimes you get a foot of snow and sometimes a warm front gives you a few days in the 50s.

At this point in his career, Wake isn't a lock for anything, but during his 11 years as a starter with Boston he has averaged 29 starts (189 IP), 13 wins, 10 losses and a  4.37 ERA. In short, there are going to be some ugly games mixed in with some gems, but when Wakefield gets 30 starts you can almost guarantee he'll win 10 or more and keep the ERA in the mid 4.00s.

Bottom Line Projection: I don't expect him to be a starter in April, but when all is said and done, he'll be... 8-7 with 4.39 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP through 18 starts, 26 games and 133 innings. He'll also log 86 strikeouts, earning him 2,000+ in his career and the team record for most career wins with 197.

Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Wake this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...



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Comments (1)Add Comment
Tough one!
written by geraldo, February 05, 2010
Wake is impossible at this point, but I like your scenario in which he gets a chance to set the records. I suspect he will either pitch the third game against KC as the "6th man" or will start the season on the DL (with Lowrie & Bonser) to get an extra lefty up to face the NYY (Richardson, Shouse?)in a 7-man pen to start the season.

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