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2010 Red Sox Fan Projections: John Lackey

Written by Rob Munstis | 19 February 2010

2010 Fan Projections: As we fight our way through January and February towards the start of a new baseball season, we'll be looking at each player on the Red Sox roster and predicting how they will perform in 2010. But we want you guys to get in on the action too! Use the form at the bottom of each post to submit your projections for each player. After the 2010 season, we'll announce who did the best and award some prizes to the winners!

Click a name to make other 2010 projections:

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard

Tim Wakefield

Clay Buchholz



John Lackey, SP

lackey_stats


With addition of John Lackey, the 2010 Red Sox starting rotation could finish the season as one of the best groups in baseball history. Lackey is one of five starters (if you include Wakefield) to have recored at least one 15-win season and Clay Buchholz has the tools to do so in the near future. No team has ever feature five 15-game winners, but if everyone stays healthy and focused, the Red do it in 2010.

But that's the big question... Can Lackey stay healthy? He's started the past two seasons on the DL with injury after posting 33 starts for five years straight with the Angels. Last season Lackey didn't make a start until May and posted a 5.08 ERA through his first nine starts. In 2008, it was the opposite. After missing all of April, Lackey wents 6-2 with a 2.96 ERA in 11 starts before the break, but finished the second half with 4.99 ERA and an increased HR and BB rate.

So what should we expect from the 31-year old Lackey during his first season in Boston?

When healthy, Lackey has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game. His best season came in 2007, when he won 19 games and posted a career best 3.01 ERA, but he's hovered in the mid-3.00s for most of his career and has never won more than 14 games in any other season.

Lackey has never been a "strikeout pitcher" but he has averaged about 7 Ks per 9 innings recently... which would put him on pace for 160 Ks. But the Sox will be featuring a new and improved defense in 2010 and if it's as good as we hope, Lackey could be more aggresive knowing that he has a number of Gold Glovers behind him.

In 2007 Lackey threw the fastball a career-high 62% of the time and mixed in his chang-up 4% of the time, resulting in a career season. In 2008 and 2009 he used the curveball more and the fastball and change-up a little less. Like Matsuzaka, I think being more aggressive will benefit Lackey in 2010. That said, he'll be facing more potent lineups than the ones he regularly faced in AL West and agressivness can bite you in the ass in the AL East. In the end, I expect him to do what he always does, win 10-15 games, fan 160 batters and keep his ERA in the mid-3.00s.

Bottom Line Projection: 30 GS, 195 IP, 14-11, 3.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 166 SO

Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Lackey this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...

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