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2010 Red Sox Fan Projections: Jon Lester

Written by Rob Munstis | 23 February 2010

2010 Fan Projections: As we fight our way through January and February towards the start of a new baseball season, we'll be looking at each player on the Red Sox roster and predicting how they will perform in 2010. But we want you guys to get in on the action too! Use the form at the bottom of each post to submit your projections for each player. After the 2010 season, we'll announce who did the best and award some prizes to the winners!

Click a name to make other 2010 projections:

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard

Tim Wakefield

Clay Buchholz




Jon Lester, SP

lester

Recently, we asked you guys to tell us who you think will be the ace of the rotation in 2010 and Jon Lester was the winner by a land slide. ... but what kind of stats will he finish with?

Lester was 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 2008. In 2009, he was 15-8 with a 3.41 ERA but fanned 225 batters - 73 more than the 152 he K'd the year before. At 25, Lester is still developing as a pitcher and could post career numbers in 2010, especially if he can avoid the slow start he had in 2009. He was almost untouchable from June through October last season, but went 4-5 with a 5.63 ERA in his first 11 starts.

I see three contributing factors to that slow start:

1) Free Passes. Lester walked 24 batters and fanned 74 in April and May - good for a .324 BB/K rate. From June on he walked 40 total batters while striking out 151 - good for a .265 BB/K rate. For comparison, Roy Halladay finished with a 35/208 (.168) rate which helped him post a 2.79 ERA. Meanwhile, AJ Burnett tallied a 97/195 (.497) rate and finished with a 4.04 ERA.

Bottom Line: Walks can kill you.

2) Ding Dongs. Lester allowed 11 homers in the first two months of 2009 (65.1 IP). He only allowed 9 the rest of the season (138.1 IP). When you're giving up that many home runs, the assumption is that you aren't locating your pitches... or you are locating, but the batter knows what to expect. Homers can be a fluking thing, but Josh Beckett dealt with a similar issue in August when he coughed up 12 ding dongs in six starts, finishing the month with a 5.03 ERA. If it wasn't for August, he may have won 20 games...

3) Defense. Julio Lugo posted a -13.4 UZR rating in 2009. He made 7 errors in 97 chances while in Boston - good for a .928 fielding %. Nick Green took over and posted a modest 3.9 UZR rating in 82 games at short, but Alex Gonzalez' arrival made life on the left side of the diamond much easier to watch down the stretch. Gonzo gave the Sox a 6.7 UZR rating and made just one error while in Boston. It's not a coincidence that Lester's BABIP went down from .333 to .289 in the second half... or that Clay Buchholz potsed the same .289 BABIP while increasing his groundball rate from 47% to 54%.

Marco Scutaro (0.9 UZR) and Adrian Beltre (14.3) will be a defensive upgrade over the short stopp commitee and Mike Lowell (-10.4)... and that should help Lester like it did in the 2nd half of 2009.

I want Lester to be a 20-game winner, but I just can't bring myself to lock it in for my prediction. I hope he proves me wrong.

Bottom Line Projection: 32 GS, 210 IP, 18-7, 3.09 ERA, 1.30, 215 SO

Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Jacoby this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...

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