| 08 February 2010
There's nothing like a six hour flight to Cali and the threat of a week long trade show about sprockets to get your mind, and heart, wishing for baseball.
That's right, sprockets. Don't ask...
So while I sipped my mini water bottles and munched on those blue potato chips that taste as not good as as they look, a few things crossed my mind. One of them was Marco Scutaro.
Specifically, the similarities that his path to Boston has with Julio Lugo's.
From 2000 to 2004, Julio Lugo was a mediocre shortstop that hit around .275, had 10 homer power and K'd about 20% of the time. Then, in 2005, Lugo had a career year, posting a .295 AVG and a .765 OPS, while dropping his K-rate a few points and stealing 39 bases to boot!
He was even better in 2006, hitting .308, posting an astounding .871 OPS and blasting an unprecedented 12 ding dongs in 435 at-bats for the Rays before being traded to the Dodgers.
No wonder Theo Epstein was so excited to hand him a 4-year, $36 million deal, right?
I don't need to tell you all what happened after that, but for the sake of my story, I'll remind you that Lugo reverted back to his mediocre ways, averaging a .682 OPS and looking quite horrible in the field during his time in Boston.
Lugo was finally shipped out of town, but the Sox are still paying his contract, even as they hand Marco Scutaro over 10 million bucks.
That's right... the same Marco Scutaro that has a Lugo-esque .265 career BA, but posted never before seen numbers like a .789 OPS, 12 homers and 100 runs scored before signing with Boston.
Theo will tell you that he signed Scutaro for his glove as much as hit bat, and there's no reason to belive that Marco won't be a major upgrade over Lugo defensively, but what is more likely: Another two years of above average production from a 36-year old journeyman or two more years of typical bottom of the order stats from the short stop position?
Bottom Line: Bill James and the other folks at Fangraphs think 2009 was a fluke and expect Scutaro to be back in the .260's with a handful of homers and an OPS in the low .700s.
I guess the question is: Are you okay with Lugo-like numbers at half the price or do you want more from your shortstop?
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