| 28 January 2010
The folks at Baseball Perspectus have released their PECTOA-based predictions for the 2010 season.
The pick the Rasy to win the AL East at 96-66 with 885 runs scored. The Red Sox are picked to win the al Wild Card spot, finishing one game behind the Rays at 95-67 with 882 runs scored. And they pick the Yankees to miss the playoffs, despite scoring 917 runs and winning 93 games.
I'm not sure what surprises me more, the Yankees missing the playoffs or the Rays winning the division after winning just 84 games last season. BP offers a free look at their player projections for the Rays, but there aren't any overwhelming stats that warrant a 12-game increase in wins. BJ Upton should be better than he was in 2009, but will that be negated when Ben Zorbist comes back to earth? James Shields and Matt Garza had disappointing seasons in 2009... if they return to 2008 form and Wade Davis and David Price live up to potential, I can see the Rays fighting for 90 wins... but can the Rays really win the toughest Division Title in baseball?
Bottom Line: Do I expect the Rays to be better than last season? Yes. But do I expect the Yankees to go from World Series champs to golfing in October? No. Baseball Perspectus punched the numbers and posted the results. In the end, if you're going to make predictions you have to pick someone to win, and they are picking the Rays.
I don't agree, but I'm officially excited for baseball...
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