| 12 March 2010
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Jonathan Papelbon - Daniel Bard
Tim Wakefield - Clay Buchholz - Daisuke Matsuzaka
John Lackey - Jon Lester - Josh Beckett
J.D. Drew - Mike Cameron - Jacoby Ellsbury
Adrian Beltre, 3B
I expect good things from Adrian Beltre this season. We looked at his splits at Safeco Field not too long ago and it's safe to say that playing 81 games in Fenway, rather than Safeco is going to help him be a more productive hitter. In short, Beltre hit .251 and slugged .414 at Safeco during his four years as a Mariner. During that same time frame, he hit .284 and slugged .476 on the road...
Taking the Fenway Factor one step further... I took a look at Beltre pull vs opposite field numbers. 83% of Beltre career hits have been up in the middle (48%) or pulled into left field (35%). With the Green Monster (310') sitting 20 feet closer to home plate than Safeco's left field wall (331'), Beltre should be able post a few more doubles and few less fly ball outs than he did in Seattle. He should also be able to post better home run totals, given that 73 of his 83 homers over the past four season have been pulled (41) or up the middle (32).
The Red Sox will be hoping that the change in scenery increases Beltre production, but they will also be watching to see if he can learn better discipline from teammates like Kevin Youkikis and J.D. Drew. Beltre isn't the strikeout-machine that Mike Cameron is but he has maintained a 17.0% K-rate and .325 OBP throughout his career. If Beltre can learn to work the count to the tune of a .350 OBP, he will help make the facing the Red Sox lineup very uncomfortable for opposing pitchers.
This may sound like I'm typing with my rose-colored glasses on, but I really think that Beltre is going to surprise a few people this season. Along with playing for a new team, Beltre will be playing for a new contract in 2010. And as if that wasn't motivation enough, the Sox still haven't trade Mike Lowell... if Beltre struggles out of the gate and Lowell is still on the roster, Lowell could start stealing at-bats.
Bottom Line Projection: 530 AB, 22 HR, 32 2B, 65 R, 65 RBI, .270, .775, 9 SB
Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Beltre this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...
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