| 19 March 2010
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Jonathan Papelbon - Daniel Bard
Tim Wakefield - Clay Buchholz - Daisuke Matsuzaka
John Lackey - Jon Lester - Josh Beckett
J.D. Drew - Mike Cameron - Jacoby Ellsbury
Marco Scutaro, SS
Scutaro is the latest shortstop in a long line of players that have tried to fill the shoes of Nomar Garciaaprra. Since Nomar was traded in 2004, we seen flashy glove work from guys like Orlando Cabrera, Pokey Reese and Alex Gonzalez. But we also saw years of mediocrity from Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. And we even saw some solid emergency performances from guys like Alex Cora and Nick Green.
Now it's Scutaro's turn.At 34, Scutaro is coming off of a career year with the Blue Jays. Thanks to two years of regular playing time, Scutaro managed to get into double-digits in homers (12), cross the plate 100 times and crack the .270 mark for the first time since 2004 last season.
It's tough to assume that Scuatro will continue to post numbers far better than the stats he's averaged over his career, but the theory is that Marco simply never got a chance to develop into the solid, everyday player he has become. If you take any year from Marco's time in Oakland and multiply the numbers over 525 at-bats, you get a line that looks roughly like the one he posted in 2009.
Example: 2006 with 530 ABs = 75 R, 30 2B, 7 HR, 60 RBI.
I'll take that from the 9th spot in the lineup, even if his average dips back down under .275. My real concern is the huge jump in OPS. Part of OPS is slugging and Scutaro closed in on the .800 mark last year thanks to an increase in doubles and homers... but he also posted an .379 OBP - a 42 point increase from his career line of .337.
Scutaro proved he knew how to work the walk, posting a 13.2% walk rate in 2009, after hovering in the single digits his entire career. This obviously caught the attention of Red Sox management, but was it a fluke?
A recent piece by Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN says no.
Lundblad notes that Scutaro has been always worked the count well, but that approach go taway from him while he fought for a spot in the majors early in his career. Last yer, he finally earned a starting gig and his patience paid off. He was third in pitches taken, leaving the bat on his shoulder 65.2% of the time, and only swung at the first pitch 18.3% of the time, enabling him to work the count in his favor and post a .289 BA on all subsequent pitches.
He also ranked tops in the league in swing-and-misses, just behind two players that have become known for their ability to foul off pitches and annoy opposing pitchers: Dustin Pedroia and Placido Polanco.
If this is the new Scutaro, he should be a perfect fit in the Red Sox offense, but one question will linger all season: Should a player like Scuato really be hitting 8th or 9th in the order?
If Ellsbury struggles in the leadoff spot, Scutaro is the logical choice to replace him, but Francona said repeatedly last season that the Sox are at their best when Ellsbury is leading off. I think we may see "Scoots" in the top spot on occasion as the season rolls along, but having him in the 9th spot actually extends the top of the order after the first inning. Having Scutaro bat 9th, actually gives the Sox two "leadoff men," but he will lose a few at-bats in the end.
So... am I buying into all of this? Yes. What do I expect from Scoots in 2010?
Bottom Line Projection: 540 AB, 9 HR, 29 2B, 55 RBI, 77 R, .271 BA, .760 OPS, 12 SB
Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Scutaro this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...
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