| 31 March 2010
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Jonathan Papelbon - Daniel Bard
Tim Wakefield - Clay Buchholz - Daisuke Matsuzaka
John Lackey - Jon Lester - Josh Beckett
J.D. Drew - Mike Cameron - Jacoby Ellsbury
Adrian Beltre - Marco Scutaro - Dustin Pedroia
Kevin Youkilis - Victor Martinez
David Ortiz, DH
David Ortiz might be the story of 2010 here in Boston. After a roller-coaster of a season in 2009, Ortiz is looking to prove that he is still "Big Papi," but many fear that his days of 40 HRs and 120 RBI are behind him.
That may prove to be true, but 30 HRs and 100 RBI would be fine with me...
The question is: Will Ortiz get enough at-bats to reach those totals? Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and regardless of how well Ortiz is hitting, Francona is going to find at-bats for Lowell, even if it means sitting Big Papi on occasion. As we discussed earlier today, Ortiz has really struggled against lefties over the past two seasons, while Lowell has hit over .300 when facing southpaws. If Tito can convince these guys to share time at DH, it should yeild very exciting results... but it would cost Ortiz quite a few at-bats.
Ortiz was fighting some personal issues in 2009 and injuries in 2008, but what sticks out to me is he K-rate from 2009. Since 2004, Ortiz has kept his strikeout percentage right around 20%, regardless of his total number of at-bats. Last year his K-rate jumped to 25 % over all and 26% against left-handed pitchers. What's interesting is that in 2008, while fighting through some injuries, Ortiz actually posted a career best K-rate of 18%, leading me to suspect that Ortiz may have lost some focus in 2009 thanks to a few personal distractions.
A 22% K-rate after the All-Star break supports that theory, as do the .258/.516/.866 numbers. Even better were the numbers from September (.284/.557/.947), when Ortiz looked like he guy we used to know and love.
If Big Papi can keep that mojo going in 2010, I expect him to be the 30/100 guy we need him to be. That said, as long as Lowell is on the roster, Ortiz is likely to lose at-bats, so my guess is he struggles to reach the 500 AB mark. In 2003, Ortiz logged 101 RBI and 31 dong dongs with just 448 at-bats... can he do it again seven years later?
Bottom Line Projection: 475 AB, 28 HR, 32 2B, 95 RBI, 70 R, .275 BA, .850 OPS, Special Category: Strikeouts - 94
Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Big Papi this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason for those who come closest...
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