| 25 May 2010
YOU'RE ON A NEED TO KNOW BASIS...
Starters
Jon Lester (4-2, 3.47) is 6-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 starts agains the Rays. On April 18th, he allowed 7 runs on 7 hits (2 HR) and 3 walks in a 7-1 loss to the Rays - his worst outing of 2010. He's 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 4 starts at the Trop and is 3-0 with a 2.32 ERA and a.181 BAA in four May starts.
James Shileds (5-1, 3.08) is 4-7 with a 5.33 ERA in 13 starts against the Red Sox. He beat the Sox on April 17th, but allowed 4 runs on 9 hits (2 HR) through 6 2/3 innings. Shields has allowed 4 or less runs in all 9 of his starts this year and 2 or less in 6 of those games.
ISN'T THAT SPECIAL...
Shields has been wracking up the K's lately, posting double digit strikeouts in 3 of his last 5 starts... but he faced both the Mariners and the A's twice over that span - two of the weaker lineups in the league. That said, he fanned 7 Yankees the last time out and has only issues 3 free passes in the last 5 games (29.1 IP).
Lester is 4th in the AL in stikeouts with 63 (Shields is 2nd with 66) and only the Blue Jays (377) have wiffed more that the Rays (.348) in the AL this year. They also lead the league is Ks against southpaws with 125... Lester fanned 11 Jays in a 2-0 win on April 28th, so the numbers certainly suggest a strong breeze during tonight's game.
Kevin Youkilis is hitting .381 with 4 ding dongs and 10 RBI in the past 7 days, but David Ortiz is hitting .400 and Adrian Beltre is hitting a staggering .462 during that same span.
Jason Varitek will catch Lester tonight with Victor Martinez nursing an injured toe. Lester has some intriguing splits between Tek and V-Mart and he told the media yesterday, that he like Victor's "go with the flow" approach as much as Tek's "by the numbers" appraoch to game calling.
2010
46.2 IP with V-Mart, 3.09 ERA, 2.61 SO/BB, .289 BABIP
13.0 IP with Tek, 4.85 ERA, 3.20 SO/BB, .214 BABIP
2009
33.1 IP with V-Mart, 1.62 ERA, 4.71 SO/BB, .271 BABIP
163 IP with Tek, 3.92 ERA, 3.33 SO/BB, .324 BABIP
KEY MATCHUPS
Carlos Pena has been in a funk for most of 2010, but he's 9 for 29 (.310) witha 5 ding dongs against Lester. He also scored the onl;y Rays run last night with his 8th homer of the year.
Pedroia (.462, 2 HR), Ortiz (.385, 2 HR) and Drew (.370, 2 HR) all hit Shields well and since his BAA and HR allowed splits have been almost 50/50 for three years now, I'm gonna guess that Pedey's 3-hit performance yesterday leads to another big game tonight.
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