| 24 May 2010
Wade Davis has had a nice run in 2010. He has yet to allow more than 4 runs in any start and has has 4 wins and a 3.35 ERA on the season. He also held the Red Sox to one run on two hits back on April 16th, but took the ND after the Rays won the game 3-1.
Not too shabby, but try this on for size:
Clay Buchholz owns a 3.26 ERA and has 5 wins on the books. He took an ugly loss in that April series, when the Rays scored four unearned runs do to sloppy fielding.
Both guys have walked their fair share of batters (Davis: 24, Buchholz, 23), though Buchhy has had a few 5-walk games, while Davis consistently allows 2 or 3 fee passes per game.
Both guys have solid K-rates as well (Davis: 6.8 K/9, Buchholz: 6.4), but for every game Buchholz fans 7 or more, he has another game where the Ks disappear. Meanhwhile, Davis is equally consistent with the whiffs, even if it is only 4 or 5 per game.
With both teams featuring solid offenses, what kind of edge can the Sox hope to gain over the Rays?
Here's something to chew on:
Buchholz has managed to go toe-to-toe with Jon Lester as the best starter on our staff, despite a .305 BABIP and some shotty defense behind him. The reason for that is his GB/FB numbers. Buchhy is inducing grounders at a 52.3 % pace, while limiting the flyballs to 29.1%, which has helped him keep the ball in the park (just 2 HR allowed).
Menawhile, Davis has been riding a somehwhat unsustainable BABIP at .258, while posting a 43.8% GB rate and a 41.5% FB rate. More fly balls has resulted in six ding dongs allowed by Davis.
The Red Sox (60) are second only to the Blue Jays (76) in home runs this year, while the Rays are hovering in the middle of the pack with 40. Don't get me wrong, we all know the Rays have some pop with Longoria, Upton, Pena and Zorbist on the roster, but Pena and Upton are in a funk right now and Zorbist isn't hitting for power (2 HR), despite a .309 BA.
Bottom Line: The Sox still worry me defensively and the Rays will be running wide on our catchers, but if Buchholz can keep the ball down in the zone, he should be able to beat the Rays tonight.
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