| 14 May 2010
The Tampa Bay Rays are the best team in baseball at 24-10.
But looks can be deceving...
With tons of talent in the starting rotation, no one is surprised that they have the best ERA in the AL at 2.78, but what is surprising is the 189 runs they've scored, despite a .253 team average (18th) and a .737 OPS (17th).
So how are they doing it? An easy schedule.
As you can see above, the Rays have only faced four teams with winning records and three of those four teams are barely above .500. They're 8-1 agaisnt the two of the worst teams in the majors (BAL, SEA) and grabbed four quick wins against the Sox while we were struggling.
They've been able to rack up runs against the worst pitching staffs in the leauge, and as good as their starters have been, you can see that they haven't really been asked to beat a solid offensive squad. Even though we all know the Sox were in a funk for most of April, I'll give them credit for holding us in check through four games at Fenway. But I find it curious that the only team that's given them any trouble this year is the Yankees - the one team on the chart with a picthing staff and offense without a double digit ranking in their column.
When facing equally strong starters and a more potent lineup, the Rays dropped 2 of 3 to the Bombers. Price beat the struggling Vazquez in Game 1. Sabathia almost no-hit the Rays in Game 2, while the Yanks scored 10 in the evental shutout. And Burnett out-lasted Sheilds, in Game 3, with the Rays bullpen eventually coughing up the game.
In short, consider this: The Rays offense scored 34 runs in 6 games against the Orioles' 20th ranked pitching staff and 23 against the White Sox' 22nd ranked staff. That's 57 runs in 9 games. Impressive offense or awful pitching?
How about this: The Rays held the 27th ranked O's offense to 19 runs in those 6 games, good for 3.1 RPG. They also held the White Sox (23rd) to 6 runs in their series (2 RPG) and the Mariners (28th) to 5 runs in a recent 3-game set (1.7 RPG). Cy Young Awards for everybody or are they just dominating the worst offenses in the AL?
Look, I know the Rays are a good team, but you can't deny that they've built their league-leading record by beating up on the dregs of the league. For comparisson, here's a look at what the Red Sox have delt with so far this year.
The Sox are 8-5 against the bums on this chart and 13-6 if you include the Blue Jays. But they've also played 13 games against the three best teams in the AL, and those games have not been pretty (3-10). Other than a sweep by the O's, they've won the games they were supposed to win and struggled to beat the better teams in the league.
Both the Rays and the Sox are built on pitching, but both teams also feature solid lineups, and the Sox may actually have the edge there... at the moment. But while the Rays have pounded on the worst teams in the league, the Sox have been fighting to stay at .500 against the best.
The problem is, this trend will continue through the rest of May.
The Rays get Seattle (3), Cleveland (2), New York (3), Houston (3), Boston (3), Chicago (4) and Toronto (1) to close out the month. That's six games in the AL East that could help level the playing field, but 10 games agsint three of the worst teams in baseball as well. Oh... and 12 of those 19 games are at home.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox get Detroit (3), New York (2), Minnesota (2), Philly (3), Tampa (3) and Kansas City (4). Minus a 2-game set against the Twins, the Sox will be on the road until the Royals series, and every team on that list but the Royals has 20+ wins right now.
Things won't get any easier in June with interleague play in the mix. The Sox will face some tought clubs from the NL West, while the Rays get a mixed bag of mediocrity in Atlanta, Florida, San Diego and Arizona.
I may sound like a frustrated Sox fan whining about the schedule here, but that's not my intention. I'm simply poiting out the facts.
Bottom Line: The Red Sox are going to need to beat good teams, especially the Rays and Yankees, if they want a shot at the post season.
Last year, Boston was the only team in the AL with a winning percentage abouve .600 on July 1st. If the Sox can hover around .500 through June, I expect things to level out in the AL East and we'll get to see the dog fight we all expected in the second half of the season.
I hope...
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