| 10 October 2010
Before the 2010 baseball season began, we asked you guys to make your predictions for the expected starting roster. It's time to look back and see who knew their 2010 Red Sox the best.
Jonathan Papelbon (read original post here)
Below you'll find Papelbon's actual 2010 stats in RED, my predictions in italics and the Fan Predictions.
As we all know, Papelbon had a disappointing season. He blew a career-high 8 saves in 45 opportunities and posted a 3.90 ERA. Until now, 2.35 was his career low, but he saved a personal best 41 games that year, while fanning 77 and walking just 8 batters... proving that ERA can be a misleading stat when talking about relievers.
Needless to say, no one was really close on the ERA, but RedSoxTalk did predict a big spike and had the closest guess in that category at 2.82.
As for the WHIP... Paps posted a career worst 1.27 mark, thanks to a career worst 28 free passes. While his K rate hasn't varied much, his walk and hits allowed totals have significantly jumped over he past three years. Those of you that guess above he Fan average 1.09 know your stuff, but it was Matt who guess closest with 1.25.
Paps stayed healthy through 2010 and despite his struggles and Daniel Bard's success, he logged the expected number of appearances and innings. I predicted 62.1 innings under the assumption that the Sox might use Bard to save a few games, either to keep Paps fresh or to see if Bard could handle to pressure.
As it turned out, the Sox stuck with Papelbon right down to the last game, so he ended up with 67 innings, which is right in line with his season average of 66 IP per year. RedSoxTalk nailed this category with an exact guess, as did Marco from my office. We had a few 68s and one 66, but as Paps can tell you - see the career worst 7 HRs allowed - "close only counts horseshoes and hand-grenades."
With 67 innings pitched, Paps tallied 45 save opportunities. Had he maintained the 90% save rate he carried into this season, he would have saved at 40 or 41 games and our Fan average would have been right on track. Instead, Papelbon was one of the worst closers in the AL, coverting saves just 82% of his opportyunities and finishing with 37 saves.
Treetroot and Pubball11 guessed it right, and since Paps is a very short list of closers with 35 saves in his first four years in the league, many of you were wise to guess between 35 and 40. Maybe next year, we'll add the blown save category to shake things up...
Lastly, there's the Ks. If there's one thing Papelbon has been consistent with, it's strikeouts. Including 2010, he's averaging 77.6 Ks per season and he's posted 77, 76 and 76 over the last three years. Interestingly, while 7 Fans predicted 80+ strikeouts, the average came in at 73 - slightly below Papelbon's normal mark.
I guess high myself, but Bryan that nailed it on the dot with 76.
Bottom Line: RedSoxTalk guess the exact IPs and was closest on the ERA. He/She was two off on saves and four off in Ks, so I deem RST the winner of this round and worth of a free Bottom Line Apparel t-shirt (see ad in sidebar).
We'll try to give way more prizes over the next couple of weeks, so make sure to check back for more 2010 Prediction Results!
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