| 21 September 2010
The Red Sox outfield will look much different in 2011.
The question is: What would you prefer it to look like?
I've read rumors of the Mets making a run at Jacoby Ellsbury. I've heard Terry Francona praise Ryan Kalish. We know Carl Crawford is a free agent. And now Scott Boars is promoting Jason Werth as a centerfielder with power.
The Sox will have some options this offseason, but let's take a quick look at what we have in house before we discuss the free agents.
Jacoby Ellsbury hit .301, scored 94 runs and stole 70 bases in 2009. His 2010 was lots to rib injuries and the fans and his teammates have begun to question his toughness. He was bumped to left on favor of veteran Gold Glover Mike Cameron, but remains a quality option in center or left. Ellsbury is entering his first year of arbitration and made just under $500K in 2010, so his trade value is high, but I see no reason to trade him unless it's for a proven, power-hitting corner infielder or a outfielder with equal defnsive skills and more pop.
Note: Scuatro proved he can handle the leadoff spot this season, but with a .715 OPS and a career mark on .720... Ellsbury's 2009 mark of .770 tells me he should be the leadoff man in 2011.
Mike Cameron's 2010 season was also lost to injury. He tried to play through a serious lower abdominal strain, but hit .259 with 4 homers and 15 RBI in 162 at-bats. Not what the Sox were hoping for. He'll need surgery in the offseason, but even if he's healthy, I would rather see the Sox go after players like Crawford or Werth than offer Cameron a starting gig in 2011. The problem is, they owe him $7.75M FOR 2011 and he currently has little to no trade value. The Sox went through a similar situation with Mike Lowell this offseason and look how ugly that got...
JD Drew will make $14 million in the final year of his contract next year. Drew is on pace to surpass his 452 AB total from last year, which means something given all the injuries the Sox dealt with this season, and he will finish 2010 with almost identical numbers to the stats he's posted while in Boston: 20 HR, 65 RBI and 80 R. The concern lies in Drew's biggest asset: his plate discipline. His batting average has fallen from the .280s to .257 and his .795 OPS is down almost 100 points from his career .887 mark. There's not much the Sox can do with Drew, who turns 35 this winter, but they can (and should) begin grooming his replacement in 2011...
Which leads us to Ryan Kalish. Kalish was called up in late July and has remained in the lineup ever since. He's still working in his defense, and his bat has cooled off a bit since we rolled into September, but he looks ready to step in as the 4th outfielder in 2011... unless the Sox make a move for a free agent OF... in which case Cameron could fill that roll - if they don't trade him.
With those options already in place, here's a look at the free agent players the Sox might go after:
Carl Crawford turned 29 in Augsut. Amazingly, he has already posted a .295 average and 40+ steals in five different seasons... with 2010 looking like the sixth. He's everything the Red Sox hope Jacoby Ellsbury will be, so wouldn't it be fun to have them both on the same roster!? The difference with Crawford is that he's proven he can hit in the middle of the lineup. He's got 15 HR power and has logged 70+ RBI four times in his career. He's already accustomed to leftfield and has plenty of experience both at Fenway Park and in the AL East, making him an easy fit. The problem is, he's going to want a Matt Holliday like deal at 7 years and $120 million.
If the Sox weren't already looking at how to re-sign, Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez and/or David Ortiz... and if they didn't have Cameron on the books for $7.75M... I'd say this was a no-brainer.
But consider this: Jed Lowrie steps in as the starting 3B, essentially swapping Lowell and Beltre's $21 total cost for Jed's $500K salary. Then you have plenty of room for $15+ million for Crawford... the question is, can Crawford replace the run production we got from Beltre in 2010?
Perhaps this opens the door for Jayson Werth. Werth won't steal 50 bases, but he's more likely to replace Beltre's 30 home runs and 100 RBI than Crawford is. Werth (31) is a right fielder by trade, but Boras says he can play all three OF spots. The Sox could use Ellsbury and Werth where ever they feel most comfortable and then slide Werth into right after JD Drew's deal expires in 2012. Werth and Crawford both bring solid OPS numbers to the table, though Werth is a more traditional hitter to slide in behind Ortiz (if he stays). That said, Werth has grown up in the NL, while Crawford was battle-tested the AL East...
Bottom Line: The Sox will have $54.2 million coming of the books this offseason: Ortiz ($13M) Lowell (12.5), Beltre (9), Bill Hall (8.5), Martinez (7.7), Tim Wakefield (3.5).
With plenty of money to play with, who would you prefer the Red Sox go after? Strengthen your team and hurt an division rival with Crawford? Bite the bullet and Boras and Werth $120 million? Or pass on them both, re-sign Belte, Ortiz and V-Mart?
Note: Brian MacPherson has a quick look at this same topic here.
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