| 27 September 2010
No.
But he's going to get one.
Papelbon blew his 8th save of the season last night in a crushing 4-3 loss the the Yankees. The Red Sox were on the verge of a sweep of the Yanks, which would have put them in a legitimate race for the Wild Card spot with just over a week left in the season.
Now, the Sox must win every remaining game to avoid playoff elimination.
Thanks Paps.
Our closer now owns a 4.02 ERA ... a 1.25 WHIP ... and a 5-6 record. A far cry from his 2009 stat line: 1-1, 1.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38 SV, 3 BS.
So why should he get a raise in 2011?
Paps jumped from $6.25 million in 2009 to $9.35 million in 2010 after a solid 2009 campaign. But despite his dreadful 2010 performance, he's still likely to make over $10 million next season... that's just the way arbitration works.
Take White Sox closer Bobby Jenks. He's never finished a season with an ERA better than 2.63, but he saved 40+ games in 2006 and 2007 while making chump change as a rookie. In 2008 he was still making less than $1M per year, but logged 30 saves in 34 chances... so the White Sox gave him a hefty raise through arbitration in 2009: $5.6 million.
That year, he regressed, much like Paps did this season, posting a 3.71 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, while fanning just 49 batters and saving 29 games in 35 opportunities. The White Sox debated what to do about their struggling closer through the offseason, but eventually re-signed him... for $7.5 million - almost a $2M increase.
He responded with an even worse season than his '09 campaign and currently sits at 4.44 and 1.37 with 27 saves and 4 blown saves.
Bottom Line: Papelbon's trade value isn't gone (I bet he could still light up the NL) but ideas like packaging him with the injured Jacoby Ellsbury or a couple of rookies for a big bat are becoming more and more unrealistic.
Daniel Bard has proven he can be successful for a full season in the AL East Theo Epstein has already stated that having "two good pitchers is better than having one" ... so it looks like Paps is here for one more year.
Now we'll just have to wait and see if Papelbon has the balls to demand more than a few extra bucks in his final arbitration hearing. What he should do is take whatever the Red Sox are offering and start working on how to keep Bard from taking over as the closer.
If he bounces back with a solid 2011 season, he'll be able to walk away and sign a big deal elsewhere, but if he struggles again... he'll be wishing he kept his mouth shut these past few years.
Think Paps would ever re-sign as the set-up man for Bard?
Me neither.
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