It’s probably not a stretch to believe that I’m in a fantasy baseball league, several actually. My guess is that most of you are as well. This year was my first experience with an “auction” style draft and it was interesting to see how my favorite Sox did during the process and who I was able to pick up for what I considered to be “cheap”.
The background on our league, like many others, is a group of friends that got together years ago and starting geeking out on the stats of the game. We’ve progressed over time, lost players and gained players, but a small core of us are still there and we number about 10 every season. We use the Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball league to run our little group. This year the commissioner decided to have an auction style draft with a budget of $250. Basically each game player nominates a ballplayer when it’s their turn in the draft and then let the bidding begin. As I mentioned, I’ve never participated in this type of live draft before so my strategy was to save money and then be able to pick up solid players near the back of the draft.
There were some players that I really wanted to go after. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz were two. If both can follow up on their stellar 2010 seasons there would be great additions. I thought that Jacoby Ellsbury would be a good choice that I could get for cheap given his 2010. He plays close to 2009 and he’d be a steal (yup, the pun was intended!). I figured that Pedroia, Youk, Gonzalez and Crawford would be overpriced but I’d take a shot with them as they came up. Non Sox that I was after: Robbie Cano (I know, I know, but .319; 29; 109???) and Luke Gregerson (MLB leading 40 holds and a sub 3 ERA last year).
So the draft started and we kicked it off with Brian Wilson (P-SF). I suppose here I should mention that we have quite a few Bay Area fans in our league. Giants were at a premium. Wilson was bought at $37. Votto and Lincecum were off next in the 40s. The first Sox up for nomination was Gonzalez at number 15 and he brought $42. It was here that I started wondering how best to budget the rest of my dough (I had gone as high as $46 to secure Cano…I know, I know…). It seemed ridiculous how high a lot of these players were going and most of the rest of guys were taking huge bites out of their budgets – one guy invested half of his budget on three players. The light bulb went on. It was time to start nominating players I didn’t really want but were good enough to attract bids in order to eat up my opponent’s budgets. For the most part it worked, though I did get stuck with Freddy Sanchez (2B-SF) when the bidding stalled at $6.
My first Sox pick was in round 4 when I managed to get Lester, a bona fide Cy Young candidate, for only $22. In later rounds I was able to pick up Ellsbury ($6); Buchholz ($4) and Ortiz ($3) – ridiculously low prices, especially for Clay (the shellacking at the hands of the Marlins yesterday was still in the future). Some $1 bargains at the end when I was one of the few with dough left: Gregerson, Adam LaRouche and Rajai Davis (50 steals!!).
The Sox that were drafted, in order of cost:
Crawford 43
Gonzalez 42
Youk 31
Pedroia 29
Lester 22
Ellsbury 6
Papelbon 5
Buchholz 4
Ortiz 3
Bard 1
Beckett 1
Best of luck this fantasy season in your leagues!
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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
David Ortiz, DH Jacoby Ellsbury, CF Carl Crawford, LF
J.D. Drew, RF Kevin Youkilis, 3B Marco Scutaro, SS
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
After a late start to the spring due to offseason shoulder surgery, Adrian Gonzalez went 3 for 6 in a minor league game this week and appears to have slipped into the groove fairly quickly. He's still a few weeks behind the rest of the team, but he should be in good shape for Opening Day. The questions is, will his repaired shoulder hinder him during the year or is he fully healthy and ready to hit 50 ding dongs and drive in 150 runs?
Okay... I got a little excited there. But the truth is, we haven't seen a hitter like this in our line up since Manny Ramirez. David Ortiz, in his prime, may be a better example, since he and Gonzilla are both lefties, so lets looks at Big Papi's numbers from his his age 29 season:
2004: .301 BA, .983 OPS, 47 2B, 41 HR, 139 RBI, 94 R
If we get those kinds of stats out of Gonzilla in his first year in Boston, I think we'll all be very happy, and to be honest, I think it's very possible. In 2004, Ortiz was in the middle of one of the best lineups in franchise history with Damon at the top, Manny behind him and Trot, Millar, Nomar/Cabrera, Youk and Meuller mixed in. Gonzalez will have Ellsbury leading off with Crawford, Pedroia, Youk, Ortiz and Drew backing him up...
Bottom Line: Bill James may be underestimating Adrian with his .312 BA, 40 HR, 125 RBI prediction...
Just for fun, I'm going to use Big Papi's exact stats from 2004 as my prediction for Gonzilla's 2011 season. In theory, Adrian will have to do it without the "medication" ... but I think it's possible.
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During the long, cold winter nights there is no more comforting thought than that of Spring Training. It is the shining light at the end of the mercilessly bleak tunnel that is November, December, January, and early February. We all count down to Truck Day so that we know a return to baseball is near. When we see our boys finally returning to the field in Fort Myers a thrill goes down our collective spines.
But enough already. Quite frankly I’m sick of Spring Training. The home runs don’t count. While David Ortiz stealing second base is an amusing highlight, it won’t get inscribed in the record books. It’s great that Bobby Jenks has an ERA of 0.00, but we all know that can’t last. (Though wouldn’t it be awesome if it did?!?)
I want to get the real games going. I’m sick of wondering if high ERAs are due to practicing with different pitches or an actual problem. I want our boys with sub-.200 averages to get back into the “swing” of things.
I love that we are ahead of the Yankees in the Grapefruit league standings, but I really can’t wait to see the standings on that beautiful Green Monster. Opening Day is only 10 days away, but that’s an eternity to my anxious brain that is packed to the brim with questions. Will Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon bounce back? Can Adrain Gonzalez and Carl Crawford adjust to Fenway Park? Are Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Kevin Youkilis completely healed? Has our bullpen been significantly improved? Will our pitchers miss John Farrell?
Opening Day can’t get here soon enough!
no commentsMake your predictions for other Red Sox players - just click on a name below!
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
David Ortiz, DH Jacoby Ellsbury, CF Carl Crawford, LF
J.D. Drew, RF Kevin Youkilis, 3B Marco Scutaro, SS
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
In short, it would have been right in line with his career numbers - and he might have set a career high in ding dongs.
In 2011, Pedroia will play with a screw in his foot. He's been rehabbing like a mad man, reporting early to camp for 6AM strengthening workouts, but don't be surprised if Francona opts to rest Pedey more frequently that in years past. With Jed Lowrie healthy and playing well, Pedey probably won't start 150+ games this season... and I'm fine with that. I'd much rather have a healthy, strong Pedroia in October than see him limp through 160 games.
Unfortunately, I do think we'll see Pedey hit the DL once this season, so I'm precicting 600 ABs, max. That said, 600 ABs is more than enough for Dustin to put up his usual numbers. And I think we're gonna see a little more power from him this season too.
Rob's Prediction: 600 AB, .301 BA, .835 OPS, 45 2B, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 105 R
* Special Category: Stolen Bases - 17 SB
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I know we're not supposed to put much stock in Spring Training stats, but...
John Lackey: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 16 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Jon Lester: 10.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, 13 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
Clay Buchholz: 13 IP, 0.35 ERA, 10 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K
And then there's Josh Beckett: 9.2 IP, 6.52 ERA, 9 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 9 K
It would be easy to say this was the reasoning behind Francona dropping him to the 4th spot in the rotation, but Tito said he wanted to make sure Beckett got off to a strong start this year, so he opted to start him in Cleveland rather than Texas.
Makes sense to me, but what about the scary numbers above?
Well, Beckett allowed 5 of those 7 earned runs in his last start against the Pirates. He spent much of that game working on his changeup and 3 of those runs got tacked on after he was relived by Scott Atchison with the bases juiced.
So, can we chalk his last start up to the old "Spring Training is for working on stuff" theory?
I'll be more inclined to agree with that adage if Beckett pitches weel in his next outing (presumably this weekend against PIT or STL).
Bottom Line: I've been impressed with Lackey do far this spring, so that's encouraging, but I think the biggest key to success for the Sox this year will be Josh Beckett... and irght now, the best thing you can say about him is: "At least he's pitching better than Matsuzaka." no comments
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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
David Ortiz, DH Jacoby Ellsbury, CF Carl Crawford, LF
J.D. Drew, RF Kevin Youkilis, 3B
Marco Scutaro, SS
Scutaro posted decent numbers in 2010: .275 with 92 runs and 59 RBI, but after hearing about his keen eye at the plate, Scoots didn't really live up to the hype while filling in for Ellsbury in the leadoff spot. After posting a career high .789 OPS in 2009, Marco fell right back in line with his career numbers, finishing at .721 in 2010.This year, he'll likely be back in the #9 spot, but it's anyone's guess whether or not this will help him or hurt him. Scutaro has been hitting at the top of the lineup since 2008 and hasn't posted more than 50 or so at-bats in the #9 spot since 2006 (156 in 9 th, 151 in 8th). I'd like to think that he'll succeed in this role in 2011, but in a strange way, I think Scutaro will be challenged more this year than he has been in the past.
With the new Red Sox lineup looking like a potential Murder's Row, opposing pitchers are likely to attack the bottom of the lineup in hopes of avaoiding guys like Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzilla and Youk for as long as possible. This means Scutaro, Salty/Tek, Cameron/D-Mac and Drew are going to see some tough pitches in 2011.
If Scutaro stays aggressive, he may be able to take advantage of an aggressive approach by opposing pitchers. If he tries to work the count and turn over the lineup, he may get caught looking more often. Only time will tell, but Scoots will want to get off to a hot start with Jed Lowrie breathing down his nack for playing time. If Scuatro struggles, we may see Lowrie at short more often, but the Sox need to make sure they don't destroy all of Scutaro's trade value, should they need to make a move in July.
Bottom Line: Scoots had 632 at-bats last season, but he won't see nearly as many in 2011. I expect this will slow him down a bit, but he'll still be a solid #9 man in a dangerous lineup.
Rob's Prediction: 490 AB, .268 BA, .725 OPS, 25 2B, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 70 R
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1. Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are both returning from serious injuries. Ellsbury lost an entire season and Pedey is playing with a screw in his foot. Who are you more concerned about and is one guy more crucial to the team's success than the other?
Matt - To be honest, I am not really concerned with either one. After a series of missteps last season, the Red Sox finally shut Ells and Pedey down and have let them fully recover before this spring. So far this spring both of them look like they are firing on all cylinders. Pedey is the most crucial to the success of the team because the Red Sox have D-Mac and Cameron to fill in for Ells if he gets hurt. Lowrie could fill in for Pedey but there would be a big drop in offensive numbers from the second base position and you would be replacing a number 2 hitter with a number 8 hitter.
Ted - Both players have cause for concern, but for Pedroia it's all physical. If the foot stays good, he's good. Ellsbury is still a young player and last year has the possibility of taking a toll mentally on him. Very loud talk last season about his toughness and willingness to work hard to get back and be a part of the ballclub could fuel some resentment for Ellsbury. Additionally there was quite a bit of controversy regarding the diagnosis and evaluations by the Sox medical staff that could also make him a bit leery. If he's mature enough to leave those issues in the past, he and Carl Crawford are going to make the Sox something they've never been before - a running team capable of playing small ball. If he hasn't, there is a real danger that he'll be gone by the deadline.
Michele - Both are important for team success, but I’d give a slight edge to Pedroia. It would be easy to say that with the addition of Carl Crawford, Jacoby’s speed is less important than before. But you can never have too many base stealers on your team, nor is Jacoby’s only worth in his feet. Pedroia’s fire and personality will no doubt continue to provide a spark to moral and his defense and bat will help improve the box score. He’s an all-around great player and his success will help the team greatly.
Rob - I think we're all in agreement that losing Pedey again would hurt more that losing Ellsbury, but there are a few minor points of interest here. While Crawford could fill in for Ellsbury as the leadoff man, it's likey to be Scutaro that fills that role, and with D-Mac of Cameron filling in at the bottom of the lineup, that's just as much of a drop off in overall offense as Matt's Lowrie/Pedroia comparison - in my opinion. If it's Pedroia that goes down (and I think this is more possible that people realize), we lose an important presence in the locker room and on the bench, and Francona ends up with a left-heavy lineup with Ellsbury and Crawford up top and Drew and Ortiz as the likely options for a bump. Bottom Line: Pedroia's more important, but it's trouble either way.
2. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz appear to be coming into their own after very good campaigns in 2010. Assuming they post equal numbers in 2011, where do you set the bar for Josh Beckett? With this offense... can the Sox win a World Series with a mediocre Beckett (10-12 wins, 4.00+ ERA) or do they need him to be a 15+ game winner, giving us three "aces" for the playoffs? Also... do you think Beckett is capable of 15+ wins and a mid-3.00s ERA?
Matt - If the Red Sox are going to win the World Series than they need either Beckett or Lackey to post 15+ win seasons. As good as the offense is on paper, pitching wins championships. Josh Beckett has been a streaky pitcher for the last few seasons, the key is for him to do well down the stretch. Beckett is very capable of a 15+ win season, but the pressure comes off of him if Lackey pitches well. That is why so many people are excited about this team; they are very deep on both sides of the diamond.
Ted - Josh Beckett having a good year (15 wins and a low 4 ERA) is not a "nice to have," but a "have to have." Unfortunately, so far this Spring, we're not seeing signs of a bounceback. Granted there has only been about 10 innings to judge from, but with an ERA of over 6, I have concerns. Over a 162 game season there are going to be aches and pains to the rotation and in the AL East - not to mention the playoffs - having a third 'ace' type pitcher is what would keep the Sox ahead of the competition. A "Buchholz and Lester and pray for rain" rotation is not the way to travel through a season. With Matsuzaka not exactly inspiring confidence this spring (yesterday's strong performance against the Tigers notwithstanding) and Okajima and Papelbon still showing cracks, the arms appear to be a growing concern, and without a bounce back season from Beckett, I don't see the Sox being capable of winning it all.
Michele - I think Beckett will bounce back this season. After last year’s 6-6 record and 5.78 ERA, 10-12 wins and an ERA around 4 would be a welcomed improvement. I think the Sox have the offense to deal with that, but in the hyper-competitive AL East, a third “ace” wouldn’t be a bad thing. Wins are always a tricky stat for measuring a pitcher’s worth because it’s not entirely in his control. I don’t know if Beckett’ll get to 15 wins, but I’ll be happy if he gets that ERA down into the 3’s.
Rob - 2011 is an odd year. In 2005, he went 15-8 with a 3.38 ERA in his last year as a Marlin. In 2007, Beckett was a machine (20-7, 3.27). In 2009 he went 17-6 with a 3.86 ERA. I smell a pattern, so I'm predicting 15-9 with a 3.75 ERA. ( Make your 2011 Fan predictions using the link in the upper left sidebar ). That's good enough to give us three quality starters for the playoffs, but if Beckett falters, I don't trust Lackey or Matsuzaka to step up. That said, after the Phillies, I can't think of another team with three potential "aces," so I suppose a mediocre Beckett or Lackey should be able to keep it close in a Game 3 situation... maybe.
3. The starting nine are pretty much set for 2011, but if there's one question mark, it might be short stop. Marco Scuatro played well enough in 2010, but Jed Lowrie is healthy and phenom Jose Iglesias has people talking about an early call up and Scutaro's trade value. If you we're Francona and/or Epstein, what would you do here...?
Ted - Unfortunately neither shortstop is really lighting it up through the spring. I think Francona starting the season with Scutaro at short is the right way to go (I'm sure he's very relieved that I think so!). If Lowrie was tearing it up it would be a bit tougher decision, but he's hitting right at the Mendoza Line and that's not going get you in the lineup. Ultimately as the season progresses the key is going to be Iglesias - who IS tearing it up this spring. If he continues ripping it in AAA, an early call-up and a trade for an arm (see #2!) should be in the cards with Scutaro taking the hit as his value would most likely be the higher of the two.Michele - I’m a firm believer in the “if it’s not broke don’t fix it” mentality. I’d keep Scutaro at short stop. That being said, if I’m Francona/Epstein and I’m finding we’re having a bullpen problem and there’s a chance to trade Scutaro for an arm, I’d probably do it knowing that I had Lowrie and Iglesias waiting to fill the gap.
Rob - I agree. Keep Scoots at short and play Lowrie more if he struggles. Let Iglesias develop more in AAA no matter how good he's playing. If you're a Bruins fan, you saw what can happen when a prospect is called up too soon with Tyler Seguin this season. The Sox need to see how things play out with these guys and weight their options come July. Like Michele said, if trading Scutaro gets us some needed help (bullpen, catcher?) and Lowrie is playing well, I say do it.
4. Predict the Red Sox final record:
Matt - 102-60
Ted - As strong as this team is, there are questions both in the rotation and in the bullpen that could dampen the charge to 100 wins this season. Playing in the AL East also makes it unlikely that 100 wins can be attained. Should the questions be answered in a positive way - and I'm going to be the optimist here and say that they will be - then I'll call a 97-65 season.
Michele - The baseball season is just too darn long (and human bodies are too prone to injury) to feel confident in 100 wins. Taking that and the difficult division the Sox have been stuck in into consideration, I’m going to say 98-64 and making the playoffs.
Rob - I've waited to make this prediction, and I'm still not sure... but I'm going with 99-63.
Give us your thoughts on these questions in the comments section!
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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
David Ortiz, DH Jacoby Ellsbury, CF Carl Crawford, LF
J.D. Drew, RF
Kevin Youkilis, 3B
Before Youk injured his thumb last season, he was hitting over .300 with a .975 OPS and was on pace for 25+ HRs, 100+ runs and at least 85 RBI. And that was without Ellsbury or Crawford at the top of the lineup and Pedroia sidelined in June.
In 2011, Youk will be smack-dab in the middle of one of baseball's most dangerous lineups. Assuming everyone stays healthy...
Youk will likely hit 4th or 5th depending on how Tito chooses to break up all the lefties in the lineup, but either way he'll have plenty of runners in front of him, so I expect him to be one of our most productive players. In fact, I think Youk could post his first 100/100 season, but he'll be relying on the back end of the lineup for those 100 runs.
Bottom Line: Opposing pitchers will be forced to "pick their poison" with this lineup, and with Youk getting a little more aggressive last season, I'm thinking he might flirt with 30 HRs and 100+ RBI, if he gets 500+ at-bats.
Rob's Prediction: 540 AB, .298 BA, .950 OPS, 35 2B, 28 HR, 103 RBI, 94 R
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Last week I made my very vague predictions for the Red Sox pitching staff. This week I’m tackling the position players.
Pedroia and Youkilis
“Glad to have them back” doesn’t even begin to put into words how I feel about these two players. I think I am not alone in this sentiment. Having Pedoria’s fire and Youkilis’ dependibility back will mean so much to the team. Not to mention the entertainment value of Pedroia’s awesome plays at second and Youk’s great batting stance. It will be interesting to see Youkilis over on third.
Ellsbury and Drew
These two players are often the butt of jokes and disparaging remarks. I happen to think you should support all members of your team no matter what and I also like them. I know that Drew’s large contract lead to high expectations, but he has been far from a waste of money. And Jacoby only makes a fraction of some of the other guys so I don’t think anyone should be picking on him. Plus broken ribs are no joke. I expect to see good things from them both. Maybe Jacoby won’t steal 70 bases, but I’m looking forward to seeing him on the base paths.
Crawford and Gonzalez
I’m very excited to see the new guys. I always worry about how athletes will adjust to playing in Boston. Crawford will see more fans in the seats for home games and Gonzalez will have a new climate to get acclimated to, but I’m sure they won’t have much of a problem. I hope that Gonzalez recovers well from off season shoulder surgery, another source of worry, but so far all signs point to him healing up well.
MacDonald, Nava, and Kalish
It was great seeing these guys get their big shots at the majors last year, but let’s hope for injury sake we don’t see them very much.
Ortiz and Varitek
These two veterans are the heart and soul of the team. I hope we never see them don other teams' uniforms.
Scutaro and Lowrie
The Sox are truly lucky to have two skilled shortstops. Will we keep them both the whole year? We shall see.
Saltalamacchia
I’ll admit I had to look up how to spell his name, but I’m determined to learn it by the time the season starts. I’m optimistic that with increased playing time, his hitting will improve.
no commentsIn 2010, Beckett struggled with injuries, and while former pitching coach John Farrell said it was more about a loss of confidence, I think the two issues were connected.
The point is - Josh wasn't his dominant self, but yesterday we saw glimpses of what Beckett can do when he's healthy and making smart decisions. Beckett fanned four and allowed one run on three hits, but what got me excited was the snap on his curveball.
“My curveball was good,” he said. “We changed a couple of things in my delivery, and we’re still making adjustments with it. The adjustment came faster with the breaking ball. I threw some good changeups.”
Back in January, we discussed a change is Beckett's pitch selection in 2010 - a change that I blamed on injury:
"I expected to see an increase in fastballs thrown when looking at his 2010 stats, but Beckett only used the fastball 55% of the time last year - a career low. In 2007, when he dominated everyone, he threw "The Ole' Number One" 63% of the time and he's averaged 65% fastballs since joining the Red Sox. The key difference in 2010 was that he compensated with the cut fastball. Until 2010, Beckett rarely, if ever, used the cutter... but he threw it 15% of the time last season.
He also used his curveball less (18%, down from 25% in 2009), which is harder to "snap off" if your back or legs are hurt or your motion to the plate isn't working right... so it seems pretty clear to me that Beckett's 2010 season was simply ruined by injury.
Bottom Line: I know this is only Spring Training. And I know this was the Astros - not the Yankees. But it looks to me like we've got a healthy and confident Commander Kickass again.
Also, kudos to new pitching coach Kurt Young for helping Beckett get back on track.
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